Compound Growth

Episode 18- What Just Happened? Markets, Tariffs & Taylor Swift’s Engagement

• Compound Growth • Season 1 • Episode 18

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In this new monthly recap series, Wheeler and Colin break down the biggest stories shaping markets, technology, and culture. August was packed with surprises — from Taylor Swift’s engagement shattering internet records to markets continuing their hot streak despite political noise and seasonal headwinds.

The hosts dive into what’s driving stock performance, including international markets outperforming, the Magnificent 7’s continued dominance, and why AI remains at the center of investor enthusiasm. They also unpack political influence on economic data and central bank independence, explaining how tariffs and leadership shake-ups are playing into the current investment landscape.

Beyond the markets, Wheeler and Colin explore the future of tech — from Apple’s AI gap to Google’s push for ecosystem dominance — and what shifting strategies mean for consumers and investors alike. This is the first of their monthly “What Just Happened?” wrap-ups, designed to give you a clear, engaging look at how news, markets, and culture intersect to shape growth.

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Credits:
Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
Production Assistance: Tori Rothwell
Editing and Post-Production: Steven Sims

I wanna start off with the biggest news- Okay.that we're gonna talk about today, and- Y-probably the most important news.You're pregnant.No.I'm a, I'm a man.SoBut it's not far off, uh, from that sort of thing.Taylor Swift is officially engaged.Oh, right, yes.Yes.Yes.That is the big news.Did you know that when she announced her engagement, within 17 hours there was 28 million likes and- On what?Over one million re-posts in the first 6 hours on Instagram.I got, like, 3 headlines pushed to me about Taylor Swift getting engaged.Can we talk about how big she is?Well, you seem to think about this one a lot, so yes.You, you talk about how big she is.So first off, one of my buddies compared her to Morgan Wallen.which is just a dismissal of Taylor's notoriety.Which is complete asinine.Yeah.Like, that's justThat is so absurd of a comparison.Yep.But you and I talked about this.I really do think she's at legendary status now, and I do think- Yeah.or has been for a while, and I think she's on, like, Michael Jackson level.Sure.I, I think she's probably going to be bigger than Michael Jackson if she isn't already.Yeah.I mean, I think that's definitely fair.I don't know of a single star in, personally, my lifetime, apart from maybe Michael Jackson, that has had this level of fame.Yeah, you know what I think about is, like, how do you qualify this l- like, what makes somebody really the biggest, like, star in the world, right?Like, I, I feel like they have to be recognized in every country.Like- Hmm.r- you know, at some point there was, like, Arnold Schwarzenegger was, like, huge.Michael Jackson obviously was huge.Well, yeah.He was number one in the box office on multiple movies- Right.Schwarzenegger, then, yeah, all the other stuff too.You're right.But I am sure she sells out, like, everywhere she goes, in every, you know, every country, every stop globally.Yeah.Oh, well, I mean, I think it's probably pretty difficult too because before you would base it off of record sales.Now you're basing it off of Spotify and social media hits.Well, streams are streams.Streams are streams, but, like- You know, they still, like, get played.I mean, I guess if you're subscribed to Spotify though, and you're paying, what is it, 5 bucks a month now?Or Apple Music- Right.or whatever it is, you know, people can just go listen to individual songs versus someone going to buy a record or something for- Well, are you thinking-about the finance aspect of it, or are you thinking about- Maybe the finance aspect of it, but, like, before it was sales.Now it's views and- Or streams.Streams.Streams.Yeah, across multiple platforms.Yeah.So I guess it is kind of hard to gauge what level of stardom someone is when you're comparing it against a platform now that doesn't necessarily exist or didn't exist.That's what I mean.I think, I think it's, it's recognizability, like, being able to, likeIf, if my mom knows who Taylor Swift is when she's walking down the street, and also, like, the equivalent of my mom in Nigeria knows- Right.who Taylor Swift is, then that makes her- Yeah.huge.'Cause right now she's the most cultural recognized star globally.That's what I think, yeah.Yeah.Like Michael Jordan used to be.Mi- Michael Jordan was number one.And then you had the Beatles, you had Elvis Presley- Sure.Michael Jackson, all of those.But she is that level of fame.Yep.Yeah.Yeah, I think definitely she's way bigger than the Beatles, honestly, at this point.Yeah.Because the Beatles were, you know, it was still confined.Like, the, culturally they weren't big everywhere the way that they were here or Britain et cetera.Yeah, that's probably fair.Like, they didn't have the reach globally.The reach, yeah.The internet changed that.That's true.Everything has more reach now.Right.Yeah.All right, that's my big news for the- Okay.for the kickoff.That's a great way to break in.I just wanted to make sure that that was discussed- Discussed.because Kaley would've been very upset had I not brought it up in August news.That is the biggest news to all the Swifties there.Well, no offense to all the Swifties, but I should not know whether Taylor Swift just got engaged or not.I feel like I don't- You do now.need this knowledge.My mindI know!I knew it already.I, I felt the world shift, Collin.Oh, yeah.I actually knew before Kaley because it was pushed to me on Instagram- Oh my God.Oh, no.while she was at work, and I was like, "Oh my God."I texted it to her.And you texted her immediately.Yeah, that's the world we live in.Yeah, it's true.Welcome to the Compound Growth podcast with Collin and Wheeler where we talk all things growth.From financial growth to career growth, personal development to societal progress, we explore how each layer builds on the next, compounding over time to shape who we become.Each week, we break down complex ideas and emerging trends into clear, actionable insights, because growth isn't just about numbers.It's about understanding the world and our place in it.The information in this material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.Investment advice offered through Integrated Partners doing business as COFI Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor.Integrated Partners does not provide legal, tax, mortgage advice or services.Please consult your legal tax advisor regarding your specific situation.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.All investing involves risk including loss of principal.No strategy assures success or protects against loss.The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that the strategies promoted will be successful.Well, we are doing a, a new series or, I don't know, version of this show.What're we gonna call this?I don't know what to call this, but- Monthly recaps?I think, uh- Something recap?I like What Just Happened.I like What Just Happened better too.Recaps, too generic.Yeah.So it's a What Just Happened, but the concept is a look back at the month- Yep.that we just finished.This month now being August 2025, and we still actually have a few days left in August as we record this today, so a lot of this can change.We just have to make sure nothing happens between now and the end of the month.Yeah, sure.In this news cycle, nothing ever happens.Right.So, what we're going to be focusing on, uh, is a reflection on what happened with investments, with, um, with technology, with the economy, anything that's impacting our clients- Yeah.at large.Right?Major moves.Yep.Yep.Yep.All that good stuff.Things like that.Yeah.So it's a good place to start with, is probably the market, right?The stock market.Uh, up again this month, pretty significantly.Yeah.As of recording today, hoveringYou know, the major US indices up around 4%- Yep.on the month.Uh, well into double digits now on the year, which is pretty striking when you think about everything that we've had to go through this year in the markets- Yeah.and all the calls that we had at the beginning of the year, all the panic, et cetera.Yep.It's been a good, good year for the market, another good month in the market, and seasonally, August is not always a very good month.We're actually moving into a period of time at the end of August and into the beginning of September, which is usually pretty bad- Yeah.for the markets.It's usually, historically speaking, the worst time for markets is beginning of fall.Yep.SoYeah.So, US stocks are working.Individual standouts are, you know, Palantir, Newmont, GE, Veranova, a lot of tech, right?Again, driving returns.But what's also really interesting is there started to be more of a recognizationRecognization?We started to recognize-a little bit at the beginning of the year, uh, that international stocks were doing pretty well as well.Yep.For the longest time, US has been the only game in town, and now we have international outperformance in Europe- Mm-hmm.and China is up, as of today- Yep.almost 50% over the last one year.Yeah.Right?Those are Bitcoin returns right there.Those are.I remember, historically speaking, when, um, people would come into our offices to pitch international, and I'm sure- Yeah.you remember this.There would always be an ongoing joke that international's always on sale.It's cheap.It's always at a discount.Yeah.And, uh, when we say things like trading at a discount, that means they're good buys because they're underperforming.Yes.And- Conceptually.Conceptually, they're underperforming compared to domestic markets.Um, this is one of the few times where international has actually done pretty well.Right, right.And we should always pause and say we're not making investment recommendations here.None of these are recommendations.But if you were invested in, you know, just China or- Mm-hmm.the MSCI or, you know, Europe, et cetera, it's, it's been a better choice for you this year- Yep.than US markets, even though US markets are having a pretty good year.Yeah, they're having a fantastic year, and keep in mind that we still have 4 months left, whatever that may hold.Right, exactly.Yeah.SoBut, you know, traditionally speaking, when you're at this level of return this far into the year, probability is that you finish at this point or higher.Anything can happen.You know, we, uhIf I look back, I think it was 2018.It was, with the interest rate shock.Yeah, the interest rate shock in the 4th quarter, right?Yeah, where it dropped 18% in like, a few days.Yeah, it was Christmas Eve, I was staring at my blood-red stock screen-thinking this is"Why am I looking at the screen and seeing blood instead of Christmas?"But, uh- Yeah.Yeah.ItThat was not a great end to the year, and who knows what's gonna happen?But, um, so far, year to date, things have been great.To reflect on what you were saying, NVIDIA was up 4% alone in the month of August.It's up 59% in the past 3 months.Yeah.Yeah.Unbelievable.I mean, Palantir's doubled this year.Yeah.Palantir's doubled.You have the Magnificent 7 up 5.6% in one month alone.Yeah, yeah.So again, it'sThere's a lot of enthusiasm and excitement.When you think about what's driving these returns, it's the same thing that we talk about week over week, a lot of AI.Yep.Right?A lot of expectations set for the future, and a lot ofI'm seeing a lot of, like, chart crimes.Like, "Oh, man.We've seen this story before.Don't you remember the tech bubble?"And if you start at this exact date with Netscape and this exact date with NVIDIA, they, like, match up exactly.And oh my God, Netscape isn't even here anymore.You know, you get to see some of that type of reaction.It is true.One of my questions to you is, um, there's a lot of political stuff going on right now- Yeah.in general, with NVIDIA being able to sell chips- Yeah.to foreign countries.and I'll say that there's been a lot of backlash for releasing some of these AI chips because the thought is that it gives other companies the same level playing field.We wanna stay ahead with that because- 0 other countries.Other countries, I mean.Yeah.Yep, yep, yep, because there's concerns about weapons and infrastructure and things like that.What's your take on that?Boy, you know, if we could predict how this administration is going to view these things 2 or 3 years down the road, it's, you know, I'd probably be a little bit better off-um, and all of our clients would be, too.But- Yeah.I, I do think that NVIDIA is still the best name in that space, right?The, there's, there's no true competition for them.Mm-hmm.And everybody is relying on them, and I think that they're a, obviously, they're, you know, Jensen Huang and everybody over there, they're very intelligent people.Sure.They can read the tea leaves.They can see that, you know, this, this administration might not like for them to be doing too much business with other countries, as you said.China, in particular.Right.Yeah.So if you think they're not planning g- for contingency plans and they're- Yeah.if they're, they're not, I, they don't seem worried, and I'm sure they are aware.Yeah, for sure.I think, um, I was listening to a podcast with the CEO of Rivian.Mm-hmm.And I think I mentioned this.Yep, you did.Yep.Uh, yep.So he was talking about tariffs and everything that's happening right now and how obviously the administration wants them to move their supply chains into the United States.Mm-hmm.And when they say that they're an American-made vehicle, oftentimes what that means is that it's assembled in America.But people make their headlights, as an example, and the people that make their headlights source parts from China probably- Yeah.or whoever the country is.It's irrelevant.But the fact of the matter is, is that the tariffs do hit everybody, but the long short of it is that they're not making changes to necessarily their infrastructure in building plants here because they're anticipating a change in 3 years from now.Yeah.So to build out new factories to do all that stuff and to worry about that now when there could be a change down the road, it's really tough for automakers.And historically speaking, that's been the case for a lot of manufacturing in the United States.Yeah, so I think what's interesting is that we have a, we have a client who works in aerospace and defense- Mm-hmm.and he's basically in project management, right?So he, they get, they source a lot of their parts from China, actually.A lot of aerospace and defense- Sure.parts come from China- Yeah.which is kinda creepy.Um, but when the tariffs hit, they, you know, reworked everything to find the cheapest way to get their products here, so they would send sh- from China to Vietnam, and then it has to be ma- materially, it has to be assembled.So you can construct it in China and deconstruct it, and then put it back together in Vietnam and then ship it over here.And then ship it over here, right.Right?And then, the Vietnam tariffs hit and they were higher than the China ones.Whoops.And it's like, so now then they, like so they spend all these times adapting to these tariff plans, and then they have to change.Yeah.And I feel like that's what you, it's a, it's just a game.It's like you're playing chess, or it's actually not, maybe it's more of a shell game.I'm not sure what game it is, but it's not easy to play.Yeah, I, I, I think there's always going to be games that are going to be played surrounding avoiding tariffs, taxes, you know, different infrastructure- Sure.policies- Yeah.that are gonna come up, so this isn't anythingThe tariffs are relatively new in the sense that it's been a massive change very quickly, but, you know, companies have been doing this for a long time.Yeah.Obviously, tariffs, you know, they've been here in some shape or form before, but I think the, th- the hardest part to plan around is how frequently they're changing and how temporary they may or may not be and like how reliable they are, honestly.Yeah.Right?And so you, I think one way to play this game is the way that Tim Cook and Apple played it.Mm-hmm.Right?So they made a big show of going to the White House.Yep.Um, they brought Trump a very special gift, lots of gold, lots of US assembly.I love gold!Yep.Yeah.Um, and they promised to, uh, or they pledged to spend $100 billion in building out US infrastructure essentially, US jobs and plants, et cetera.Yep.Right?That's a pledge.Pledges don't always come true.They're like dreams.No, yeah.That's true.Right?I mean, who knows what will actually materially happen?Right.So they, essentially they, they brought him a present and they promised that someday in the future they'll spend $100 billion, and by the time that day does or does not come, Trump might not even be here.Right.Right?But they made Trump look good.Yep.Right?They played the game, and now they're exempt from the tariffs.Right.Yeah, and I think ultimately do you really want your iPhone to be assembled in America?Probably not 'cause it makes it more expensive.Probably not 'cause it makes it more expensive- Yeah.and everybody's got an iPhone and, um, some of those jobs aren't jobs that everybody's gonna want, I'll say, for an example.You know?And if all the factories are already set up over there, I understand what they're trying to do and that's important in the same way that I understand Rivian waiting- Yep.to do stuff, too.Yeah.And that's kinda what it is.I think it's people coming to terms that there's gonna be volatility for the next few years politically.That's to be expected, and, um, if you anticipate that, I think companies know what to do.Yeah.And now because Apple played that game this month, they're having a good month.The market looks at Apple and looks at them- They're having a great month.playing the game and they say, "Well, you're doing a great job playing the game."They're not talking about the fact that Apple still isn't innovating.Not at all.And if they spent $100 billion building out US plants- Yep.that wouldn't actually make them any more money.It's, it's just like-Nothing changed about Apple's fundamentals except for that they don't have an exemption.Or they, they have an exemption from a tariff that they didn't have to deal with before, and that they wouldn't maybe have had to deal with anyway.It's like, it's, it's all just a, like a viewpoint.Right.Yeah, speaking of that, you and I had a conversation with this yesterday, and this is also August news.There was the Google Pixel event.Right, yep.Yep.Which, I mean, is the direct competitor or one of the direct competitors to Apple in regards to the cell phone game.And did you catch any of their release?Did you see what they did?I didn't.I did not.Okay.So, um, celebrity appearances.So- Celebrity appearances at the Google event?Jimmy Fallon was, Jimmy Fallon was the one doing the actual presentation.So he did the presentation.You wanna know who else was there was the Jonas Brothers- Okay.was on stage with them.And, um, one of my personal favorites, Cody Rigsby.Oh, from Peloton?Peloton.Peloton, yes.He was there too.And then on top of that, you also had, um, the, uh, I think it was Lando Norris was there from Formula 1.Oh, right 'cause they, they're a sponsor.So it was a very, very star-studded- Yeah.presentation.Yeah.But something that was very interesting about it is, um, the discussion around selling cell phones has changed entirely because you don't have new customers.Yeah.You are operating in a space where cell phones don't have new target customers to go after because everybody has a cell phone.What you're trying to do is make it easier for people to switch.Yeah.And that was the whole presentation.It wasn't about trying to gain more market share because the market's already sapped up.It was all about making it easier to switch from iPhone, which has a 65% hold right now, and trying to pull users away from iPhone.So now there's blue texting.Yeah.So the green text icks, uh, are no longer a thing.I point to Tori because sh- she doesn't like green texts.So that's no longer a thing.They're talking about integration with other apps- Yeah.and trying to pull things over.And it's an interesting concept when you're operating in a space where every single person already hasYeah, so i- it's, it's really, it's not about obviously sales anymore, right?No, yeah.It's, it's all about the ecosystem.Yeah.Yeah, and basically RCS is like a technology that, you know, Apple is kind of using now in their messages and whatnot.But basically, RCS is Apple and Google finally agreeing to stop making our group chats look like they're stuck in 2005.Okay.So it's iMessage lite for cross-platform texting.So better pics, reactions, read receipts, um, all of that good stuff.But iPhones are still keeping the blue bubble exclusive for the most part.But yeah, so there's ways to get around it.You know what I think is funny about Google this year?Is that they were down at 1 point 45%.Right?Holy crap.And now they're at all-time highs and- Talk about a swing.Yeah, everybody was very anti-Google.Like 4, 4 months ago nobody wanted to buy Google stock.Uh, they were falling behind in the AI game or spending too much money on the AI game, or their AdSense weren't working, wasn't working out, or YouTube wasn't making enough money and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.And now all-time highs again, one of the top out performing stocks this year.Once they were, they were talking about removing Google from the Magnificent 7 'cause they weren't so magnificent anymore, and now they're fine with them again.Yeah.I, uh, I, I will say that Google to me is innovating more currently than Apple is.Yeah?Well, what?With phones or with AI?With AI.So Apple just this week, they were talking about what AI company Apple is going to buy, right?'Cause it's- Right.Is itWill it be Perplexity, right?Will it beLike it's, they can either license AI like with ChatGPT or they can buy AI.Right.And I don't know which one's better, but they're not gonna just sit, sit here forever not doing something with AI.Siri st- hasn't improved since whenever it came out.Siri is a total failure.Yeah.Like the only thing I use Siri for is an Apple CarPlay to call someone.Literally, yes.I either Apple Play and then call you.Yeah.Or I won't actually use Siri to call you if you're, if I'm not driving.Correct.in my life.And the thing is, is whenever you ask Siri a question, it diverts to Google.Like, it's literally like, "Here are the Google search results."Yeah.Okay.So, i- it justUh, they're so far behind in that, and, um, unfortunately now the hardware isn't a separating factor.Yeah.Even if you look at, you know, the actual hardware on the Android phones, most of the time, it's better.Now, will I switch?I don't know.But the actual hardware, you have more memory, you have better battery, you have better cameras, you have better screens because you know Samsung makes iPhone screens.What do I care about the screen?Like, what am I- You don't.What, IWell, I, I'm not gonnaI'm never gonna switch, Collin.I- No.I don't know what I could possibly- Well, now it's easier.Maybe the, maybe the, the Google implant in my head would be better than the Apple implant in my head.But I don't know honestly why I would ever switch.What would cause you to leave an ecosystem?Um, the complete submergence of the existing ecosystem.Like, uh, it would have to just go away complete.Like, why?It would have to fall apart.It's already good, right?The only other thing I can think of that would make me leave is, um, A, I wanna try something new, but B, security.Sure, butAnd again, historically speaking, Apple's always been the most secure.Most secure.Right?'Cause they're not open source.Yeah.Let meOkay, so here's another question for you.So, we're talking about closed-loop systems- Yeah.in AI, where all of our, I'll say, components at work are integrated in a way that we can have an AI chat companion, where we could ask it questions and it will generate information.Yeah.If you have an Android system where the Google AI is so effective that you could be like, "Hey, can you find this note that I made, you know, 2 years ago and then change it to X, Y, and Z," and it will go and do that for you, or it will pull upOr you could be like, "Hey, pull up all my notes from all the vacations I've had in the last 2 years and make a slideshow and send it to my wife."You know, there's, like, some AI examples that I think could actually pull me out of the iPhone ecosystem.Counterpoint.Okay.Feel like everything you just described is going to be table stakes in the future.It is.And AI is gonna be a race to the bottom, in my mind.Totally.Everybody's trying, they're, they're all rushing to get there because they can't fall behind.But once they arrive at that destination, I don't think they're going to be all that different from each other, honestly.I agree.I think the thing, though, is that if you're late to the game- Sure.if you're late to the table, you're gonna- Then-lose market share.If you're late to theIf you're Apple- Yeah.and you're late to the table, you just have your piggy bank- Right.and you go buy the table.You have to buy the table.And you have to implement that table.You have to get people to your table really quickly.They're already there.Better be a, better be a nice table.Yeah, I mean, look, I, I think if you, you know, if you're u- if you're utilizing ChatGPT and Apple buys ChatGPT, then you'll do that.If Apple has a version of ChatGPT and it's already connected to everything else in your ecosystem, then you'll probably leave the one thing that isn't in your ecosystem, right?That- Totally.in that case being ChatGPT.Yeah.Yeah.Or Chat.Absolutely.If you will.Yeah.Chat, if you will.All right.So let's talk about some other impacts on the market.Obviously, politics continues to play a big role in the markets, in the economy.Yep.Where do you wanna start?Why don't we start with the Fed?Let's start with the Fed.'Cause that's a pretty big polarizing topic at the moment.It is.Should the Fed be independent, Collin?Yes.Okay.So, obviously President Trump doesn't agree.Uh, and he's attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, uh, just this week- Yep.at the end of August here, citing alleged mortgage fraud.Cook has denied the claims and pledged to sue, with critics warning the move threatens Central Bank independence, which is, I think, the whole point.He wants to fire Powell.He can't fire Powell, and it's not worth it because Powell's at the end of his term in, like, less than a year.Yeah, I was gonna say, what's he done?In March?Yeah, March or May, something like that.It's the- Yeah.the beginning of nextwell, partway through the beginning of next year.Right.So Trump i- uh, Trump and Powell is kind of old news now.Now it's like, "Well, who else will still be there after?"And maybe Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who doesn't want to cut rates, is the target at the time.And he does not want that.Yep.Now, the Fed should be independent.Mm-hmm.Why?So one, I think, um, what this comes down to is term limits for me.Because, umAnd I wanna take through some history.So, Lyndon B.Johnson, okay, former president back in '65, actually, uh, physically assaulted the Fed chair.Yes.Um, his to- which is a, a story I won't-really get into.But, um, so that happened, uh, because he really wanted rates to get cut.Yep.And they weren't being cut.Um, after that, Richard Nixon famously went into heated battles and debates with the Fed chair at the time.Ronald Reagan, um, blamed a lot of things that went on during his presidency on the Fed chair.And then George W.Bush blamed his entire re-election falling through on the Fed, saying that, uh, it was a complete kick in the stomach that Greenspan hit him with, and, um, it's one of the clearest examples of Fed and political loss.So, one of the reasons why it's separate from political parties, in theory, is because it shouldn't have an impact on, like, the presidential election necessarily.Like, it should be removed.But a lot of people concern themselves, and a lot of presidents say, "Well if you drop rates, that's gonna cause markets to go up.It's gonna make me look really good during my presidency."Right.So that's ultimately why presidents want-to have control over that process and it's a power struggle, and I think that power struggle will always be there and I think it should always be there.I agree.It isn't exactly a check and balance, but it's an, it should be, theoretically, an independent party.Now you just- Yep.listed a bunch of Republican presidents who- Yep.did not.Um, but it's also really important to note that Powell was a Trump appointment.Yep.Right?So Trump picked the guy, now he wants to fire the guy 'cause that's what he always wants to do when the guy disagrees with whatever Trump says, right?So fire him.Can't do that.Um- And this also happened in 2018, 2019 and 2020 as well.There's always gonna be conflict.There's always a struggle, yeah.But there's a difference betweenAnd he did talk about firing Powell at 1 point before.He did.In 2018, he, um, said he was clueless.Right.So again, just wanna blame.And he says that about- Right.He does.everybody.If he met me, he would say, "Way, way worse," uh, but- I don't know about that.I think that, uh, in general, I agree with you and this is going to continue to be an issue, not just in August of this year, but moving forward until maybe it isn't.And I think that actually brings us to the firing of the BLS Commissioner.Mm-hmm.Um, which was at the very beginning of this month.It feels like it happened like a year ago at this point, but it, it was just a few weeks ago that Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEnturfer.Totally messed that up.Erika- Fired Erika.Erika got fired after a weak job re- jobs report.So basically the, uh, BLS Commissioner, which now I recognize why none of the podcasts were saying her name.They- It's too hard to stumble over it.But so the BLS Commissioner had said, "Hey, jobs market, on further reflection, upon further review, doesn't look very strong right now.Here are the numbers that we have."Yep.And Trump said, "You're fired."And then he replaced her with somebody who is known to be a little bit less experienced and a lot of bit very favorite, you know, very supportive of Trump and his policies, right?So my school of thought here is that the next jobs report will look very good because the guy's job now is to make a jobs report that looks very good.Mm-hmm.But we can also talk about the data at the BLS because the data has been bad for a long time.Mm-hmm.Right?Um, so it's- Why has the data been bad?Well, because the participants aren't very reliable anymore.No.Right?So you had data that, uh, you know, peopleIt's all survey based, right?And the people filling out these surveys, there's fewer and fewer of them.They're not incentivized to do it.Nope.Nobody's sending them a $5 Starbucks gift card to fill out this data.We actually have, um, Shay on our team- Yeah.will do any survey ever sent to her.Yeah.If she gets a $5 Starbucks gift card.Like she does surveys weekly.If we could just- And I'm like, "Where do you even find these surveys?"If we could just carve off a little bit of our fiscal budget for survey- For surveys.giftcards, we might actually have more reliable BLS data.That's probably true.Um, but it's not the, it's not her fault that the data wasUh, and, and again, it was directionally accurate.That's the whole point.Yes.You know what the margin for error is with this data?No, I don't.All right.So let's say that the jobs report shows that there were $70,000, or sorry, $70,000, 70,000 job reports cre- or jobs created last month.Okay.Right?And we wanted it to be 150.Okay.Okay?Let's say the data comes out.The margin for error is 100,000.So in no way, shape, or form does any of that number matter at all.So basically what you're saying is, um, you know, I'm trying to lose 10 pounds, but if I gain 3, that's irrelevant.It's irrelevant because it's- Okay.Sounds good.within, it's within this margin.Okay.Sounds good.No, no.It's that, that's, that's their, you know, their qualification here is that this data is going to be directionally accurate.This is not the type of study that you would like, I don't know, maybe approve a drug for or something.Right.So here's my question to you.um, philosophically.Mm-hmm.All right, so if jobs dataWell, 1, now the person reporting jobs data is incentivized to do it in a specific way.Yeah.And we also know that the data that they're receiving is flawed anyway.Mm-hmm.How do you base your decisions?Well, it shouldn't be a politicalJust like the Fed, it should be politically independent, right?Um, but th- even if the data is flawed, like I said, it's directionally accurate.Mm-hmm.Right?So if it's n- if it is independent, there's no political influence ideally- Mm-hmm.um, then you should be able to look at that as a data point to give you some semblance of an idea of what's happening in the, on the work front, right?Mm-hmm.Uh, these are all data points.What the Fed does with interest rates, whether they are potentially going to cut in the future or potentially going to raise, however they communicate.They never used to communicate anything at all.No, I know.They just used to, they used to just come out- Yeah.and it would be cut, right.Yeah.And- It wasn't ever a discussion.And then re- can go, you can go yell at them, but- Yeah.uh, I think th- you need independent data sources because that's what tells us what to expect from the market, you know?Mm-hmm.And when we remove these data points, as I've mentioned to you, this wa- this was my concern here, it re- it becomes less reliable and it becomes a little bit moreThere's more potential for whistling past the graveyard.We don't know what's happening underneath the surface.If the only thing we can see is the tranquil water, then I can't see the piranhas that are waiting for me to jump in.Right.And so that, that's what concerns me about the future.That's the trend and the path that I feel like we're on right now.It doesn't mean that's where we are today.Right.I think, um, something that I try to talk clients through, and you and I discuss this as well, is, um, politics and market performance are often unrelated.Mm-hmm.And whenever there is a bad political thing that comes out, um, irregardless of who the president is, people expect the market to move in a certain direction.Mm-hmm.And that's not usually the case, you know?If, umI'll say most of the time what markets trade off of is earnings reports and things like that.However, with that being said, if there is political influence in the data that's being released into the market, then that does tend to swing things a little bit.So while politics and markets are removed with a certain amount of political influence, it can have a bit of a trigger there at times too.Yeah, I think what's really tough isYou know, historically, we've always been able to say that.Like, presidents will getThey'll get credit for a good market and a bad market, right?Yeah.Because they happen to be the president at the time, let alone the fact that the market is always forward-looking.Yep.Doesn't care who the president is the majority of the time.And oftentimes, the economic policies that are put into place that one president might get credit for had nothing to do with that president.You know, we talk about Clinton.Clinton, you know, balanced the budgets, et cetera.There were a lot of things that his predecessors did that help him get to that point.Of course.Right?Uh- Yeah.Ball's rolling in a general direction typically.Right.And, and I'm not trying to take any credit away from him, but he doesn't get all the credit.He, like, i- he shouldn't get all the credit.It's, it's always, uh, you know, second derivatives, unintended consequences.Mm-hmm.You know?Anyways, this is a year in which the president has very much largely impacted the market.Correct.Because of, I'll say, mostly tariffs.Right.Yes.Definitely tariffs.Pretty much just all tariffs, and now we're talking about the Fed and whatnot.But, you know, to be, truth be told, um, market had a very, very minimal reaction to the most recent Fed discussions and whatnot.Yeah.And we'll see what ultimately ends up happening with the rate cuts and whatnot.You know, we're moderately positioned in terms of other developed countries.You know, I think the EUOr no, it was UK had one rate cut that was, um, a quarter point, but, you know, most of the EU has remained pretty much unchanged.So I think relatively speaking, we're moderately placed amongst developed nations in terms of what we're doing from a Fed policy perspective.And unless inflation has a significant drop, I'm not anticipating some major interest rate cuts personally.But, you know, ultimately we'll see.We'll see how it all pans out and, um- Yeah.it's gonna be interesting to see what happens over these next few months.Yeah, it's really whatYou know, I guess actually, um, the w- the one caveat to my statement about the jobs report needing to look a certain way is that the jobs report also is an indicator for whether the Fed should cut rates.So, you know, these 2 things are not disconnected and, you know, the f- Trump might have been unhappy that there was a bad jobs report, but a job, a bad jobs report also helps the Fed cut rates, and that's what Trump also wants.So- Trump wants nothing more than rates to get cut because if rates are cut, then that means that markets will rally.Most likely.He's playing checkers against himself, Colin.I'm not sure he- Exactly.knows which side he's on.All right.Well, we don't know if the f- the, the rate will cut, the- sorry, the rate cut will come or not.Yeah.Um, but I agree that it's not the number one driver of the market right now.Correct.The market is forward-thinking.It's seeing AI and it's seeing productivity and it's seeing that right now.Mm-hmm.And i- that seems to beYou know, Charlie Munger always said, "Recognize the wave and r- and ride it," right?Right.Um, we're surfing a good wave right now.We'll see what the rest of the year brings.I agree.That wraps up Episode 18 of the Compound Growth Podcast and our August recap.This is the first of our new monthly wrap-up series where each month we'll highlight what's happening both in the markets and beyond.Be on the lookout for our next one at the end of September.Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next time.Compound Growth with Wheeler and Collin sponsored by CoFi Advisors.Reach out today.Yay!