Compound Growth

Episode 22- What Just Happened in September? Tariffs, EV Tax Credits, and Gold's Bull Run

• Compound Growth • Season 1 • Episode 22

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Wheeler and Colin dissect September 2025's biggest financial shakeups in this monthly recap. The hosts explore the administration's unprecedented 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals without US manufacturing—an industry-specific policy that could reshape drug pricing and benefit major players like Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, and Novartis while potentially devastating smaller biotech firms. They debate whether these tariffs will ultimately hurt consumers through higher insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs, despite generic drugs remaining exempt.

The conversation shifts to the automotive industry's turbulent month as the $7,500 EV tax credit expired. Wheeler and Colin analyze how manufacturers like Ford, GM, and Tesla are adapting through lease programs, while Mercedes and Porsche retreat from the EV market entirely. They discuss China's BYD emerging as the global EV leader with $22,000 vehicles and question whether America has conceded this technological race. The hosts also examine Jaguar Land Rover's cybersecurity crisis costing $50 million weekly and the UK government bailout raising eyebrows about corporate welfare.

Wrapping up with market performance, the duo highlights the S&P 500's 14.35% year-to-date return and gold's stunning 45% gain—outpacing both stocks and Bitcoin. They discuss the Chicago Federal Reserve's shift to real-time unemployment data using ADP, Indeed, and Google information, potentially revolutionizing economic reporting. Throughout, Wheeler and Colin keep it personal, sharing stories about avocado prices, gas stations, and home construction costs to illustrate how tariffs and inflation affect everyday decisions beyond headline numbers.

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Credits:
Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
Production Assistance: Tori Rothwell
Editing and Post-Production: Steven Sims

Welcome to the Compound Growth Podcast with Colin and Wheeler, where we talk all things growth.From financial growth to career growth, personal development to societal progress, we explore how each layer builds on the next, compounding over time to shape who we become.Each week, we break down complex ideas and emerging trends into clear, actionable insights, because growth isn't just about numbers, it's about understanding the world and our place in it.The information in this material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.Investment advice offered through Integrated Partners doing business as CoFi Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor.Integrated Partners does not provide legal, tax, mortgage advice or services.Please consult your legal tax advisor regarding your specific situation.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.No strategy assures success or protects against loss.The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that the strategies promoted will be successful.All right, Colin, we are back with another monthly recap episode of what just happened.September was a month full of policy shakeups, economic signals, tech drama, market jitters.Today, we're gonna cover all of that.We'll cover policy, economics, tech, politics, markets, winners, losers, and whatever you think was the biggest news for September 2025.Yeah, I feel like we got some good stuff.It was a busy month, but, uh, you want to dive in with something that was big headlines today, pharma tariffss?Yes.So I mean, I, I just turned off the TV in the background because they were, you know, Trump was on there with, uh, Kennedy talking about pharma tariffs.And this is interesting because a couple weeks ago, I was talking to you about a Joe Rogan episode I listened to- Yeah.where he had a guest on there that represented a smaller manufacturer for, like, startup and, and early-stage biotech and pharmaceutical companies, and he was talking about the battle against some of the big boys.And this seems to be kind of more along those lines, right?It's, it's the biggest- Yeah.story of the month when it comes to the health and, and biotech sector, 100% tariffs on branded drugs without US manufacturing, and that seems like it really sets the table for the people who are winning to keep winning.Yeah, I mean, what's kind of crazy here to think about is that all of the tariffs that we have spoken about before are really on countries.We always talk about the China tariff and the EU and, you know, all these other countries that are getting hit with all of these tariffs.This is an industry-specific tariff- Yeah.which is something that is not something that we've really seen from this administration so far just yet.Certainly, there have been more taxes on certain areas coming out of certain countries, but this is more or less just a blanket statement on imported drugs, and what this is gonna do is it's really gonna set up for a few companies to potentially be big winners here.So, when you think of what companies manufacture in the US, you know, you've got Novartis, you've got Johnson & Johnson, you've got a ton of companies that have all of their production already set up here on the shores that will probably benefit, you know, including Eli Lilly and Roche too.But, with that being said, the companies that are obviously not set up for that are gonna have some tough times, and these medium-sized businesses are probably gonna be struggling too, 'cause a lot of their drugs and a lot of their manufacturing is overseas.Something that is a little interesting on this tariff, though, is it doesn't affect off-brand labels.Did you see that?I thought that was kinda crazy.Yeah, that is kind of weird, and I, I think what's tricky is that a- all these, like, there are some of these off-brand labels are made by major companies.Right.Like Teva Pharmaceutical out of Israel, like, that's a huge company that makes a bunch of just, like, generic labels.Yeah.I know, it's gonna be fascinating to see how this all pans out and how the markets affect.I mean, s- some of these drug companies were up a little bit because of the news that were based here in the US, um, but whether or not these tariffs stick is going to be interesting, 'cause a lot of people rely on these drugs, and if the drug prices go up, to be honest, I think who's probably gonna be hurt the most out of this is probably the insurance companies, if you really think about it, because they're the ones that are gonna be paying a lot of the drug costs.So, if you think about the cost for healthcare for the average patient or person that they're providing insurance for, it's gonna skyrocket, which will then eventually trickle down to the average consumer in the form of premiums, but it may not be an immediate thing right away.In my mind, it's gonna be these insurance companies that are probably gonna get hosed off the bat.Well, I think you're right, that eventually this does trickle down and impact the everyday American in a negative way.I think about my mom's medicine that she's started taking for this, you know, very rare condition that she has, and that medicine, I think that was, like, $300,000 a year, and she's not paying that, right?Her insurance company, thankfully, is covering that right now, but she does have an out-of-pocket expense, and that expense can go up in addition to just, like, the regular premium, the monthly premium going up.So I'm, I'm nervous about this, and I think what's kind of tricky, and, and this is going back to the Joe Rogan interview that we were talking about, what the guest was talking about was the GLP-1s and how there are major players in that space, like Eli LillyNovartis, it's, it's interesting, because obviously that's not a US company, but they seem to be positioned d- due to, like, the way they manufacture and where they manufacture, that they're gonna be able to get around this.But the GLP-1 companies rely onexports from other countries to come in- Right.and keep the costs low, and it's really hard to be a startup company in this space, like startup biotech, small-cap, micro cap, biotech, and fighting against these big pharma companies.It, it's really seems like it's just gonna help these companies corner the market, which I think is what the people who are putting this policy in place are looking for.Yeah.It's kind of like when you hear about all of these companies that build things in the US, and you think they're not gonna be affected by the tariffs, but they source a lot of their products from other- Right.companies.Like, Rivian was a perfect example of this.But Rivian, a US-based car manufacturing company that is built in the US, well, their headlights are sourced from Mexico- Yeah.in addition to, like, their nuts and bolts are brought in from China, and all their tools that they use for machining are brought in from other countries.So, it's, it's pretty difficult to manufacture on a large scale while having everything in your supply chain solely US-based.I understand the reasoning behind wanting to do this because there is geopolitical risk, and there is risk in the event that if you ever got into a war or something like that, and all of your drugs are manufactured overseas, they could, could in theory, be a pretty big risk to the country.With that being said though, whether or not this is gonna be a long-term tariff, they change constantly.It seems like every single day we're getting some sort of new announcement about some sort of tariff increase or reduction.Yeah.This is the most recent one, and it's gonna be a journey to see who's gonna actually benefit from this.But certainly right now, the big benefitters or benefactors of this are gonna be the big US-based drug companies, and we've already started to see that reflect in some of the stock movements.Yeah.Yeah, I think that Trump was announcing a deal with Pfizer right before we, we hopped on here, and I don't know what that deal was.I didn't have time to get into it.But yeah, I, you know, I was talking about this with a client earlier, um, you know, shortly before we actually recorded, and he was thinking about, you know, the next recession, right?Mm-hmm.When, when is AI going to disrupt the job market?And, you know, he was thinking 4th quarter this year, first quarter next year, for sure.Like, one of those 2, one of those 2.And I'm like, "That's, that seems really soon."And- It does seem soon.You know, we were talking about the things that could impact the market at this point because historically speaking, and I'm getting a little bit ahead of our agenda here, but when we are this far along into the year with the returns that we have, the odds are probability wise that we finish this year higher, right?Right.That's just historically what, what plays out when you're looking at the back quarter.The last time that didn't play out was that 2018 year, I think it was, where- Mm-hmm.the Fed raised rates very rapidly in the 4th quarter.December, yeah.Yeah.And, you know, that was a shock.And the question is like, where's the shock coming from?What kind of shock would you need to have an unemployment to really drive this market down?Tariffs aren't shocking anymore.They're just kind of like noise, and they're new things to navigate.And I think honestly, sometimes these policy, these policies that come into play, they feel like it's meant to be rapid fire noise so you don't necessarily think about what they're trying to achieve.Think about the solar credits, which again, getting ahead of myself, but the, where do all these components come from when you look at solar, right?Where do the components- Yeah.Where do the materials c-, you know, the, the, uh, the resources, the non-renewable resources come from?They're not coming from us.No, no.Right?We're not, we're not mining for that here in the US.So, yeah.I mean, that's, it's, it's a fair point.You know, I was on with, um, I was doing a ChatGPT exercise a few days ago, and I was asking it, I was like, "Are tariffs good?""Are tariffs good?""And have the tariffs, and, and have the tariffs been working?"Like, it was just a general question.And I was like- Yeah."I want you to ask me questions back to kind of help me determine whether or not this was a good or a bad thing."And it was basically came back with, "It's too soon to tell."Hmm.And it's one of those things where AI is probably not gonna disrupt the market tomorrow.You know, I, I think if, to say AI is gonna cause a recession in Q4, I think is kind of maybe not a lack of understanding, but i- it doesn't put what AI is into perspective in a lot of ways and the same thing that the tariffs are trying to do as well.We won't know if tariffs are a good decision in the same way that we're, we don't typically know we're in a recession until after we've been out of it.You know, you have to look back on these things to figure out, well, did this actually work?Was it effective?Did GDP grow because of it?Is AI actually reducing the amount of participants in the labor market and hurting these numbers?And it's one of those things where we can price it in as best as we can, but this kind of segues into the fed interest rate cuts.You know, a lot of people, if you were to go back a few weeks ago, the beginning of September, you know, the fed even came out and said that there are gonna be 2 rate cuts.You know, now it's possible with more GDP growth that we don't see as many rate cuts, and it's one of those things where it's difficult to know whether or not something is good or bad until it's actually happened and you've seen the effects from it.But certainly the is uncomfortable and annoying along the way.Yeah, for sure.And I, and to be fair to the client, I don't think he was saying, "Hey, AI is going to cause the recession."I think he's, he's saying basically the people using AI will cause the recession.Will cause the recession.Yeah.But I think- Which is a good point.Right.But I, you know, you bring up the fed and I think that's a really good place to, to look at what we expect for, for rate cuts for the rest of the year or lack thereof and I think Powell came out this week and said that the risk really is more still inflation and less the unemployment rate, right?We keep talking about the unemployment rate because we have concerns about the employ- unemployment rate and inflation seems like it's kind of steadied, but tariffs, one thing tariffs do is create inflation.And we've seen that historically.I've seen that personally in my own experience, and we don't know how these costs are gonna get passed down, like you said, but they do get passed down.Th- there's no just like really kind, giving corporation that's just gonna absorb all these costs and not- No.pass it on.Yeah.I mean, inevitably companies and people are gonna get hurt by this.When you have prices increased by 100%, that's gonna be felt somewhere.Um, and even if the United States government generates a ton of revenue and we turn into a socialistic economy where everything's given back to people, which seems unlikely-that's probably also not gonna happen anytime soon, then yes, people are gonna be affected by this.Whether or not this pans out to be a good thing in regards to markets and GDP growth and all of that other stuff will remain to be seen, but certainly in the interim, this is gonna be g- get felt somewhere.I mean, it doesn't feel like the g- you know, if the government's generating revenue, it's always pitched like it's the countries that are paying, but when it was on my doorstep, it was me paying, or well, technically it was Jess paying, and that's notThat's just additional tax, right?Mm-hmm.It's, it's funny because when all this tariff stuff started coming into play earlier this year, people were talking about the real world impact, and I don't think you really understand the real world impact until you see it as a line item on your bill and that really kind of drives the point home.It may help the country turn more or get closer to returning a, a profit, I guess, if you look at it that way, but it also took more dollars out of, out of our pocket.Well, yeah, and the thing is, for sure, um, when it comes to paying taxes in general, there is a lot of waste in the government and there is a lot of money that you do not see a benefit from that comes out of your tax bill.There are social programs that do benefit people, but that doesn't mean they benefit everybody.Right.So, and that's just gonna be kind of the thing is if you have money taken out of your paycheck or your goods become more expensive or whatever it might be, to actually see an ROI on that as an individual is very tough.So that's certainly gonna be interesting when it comes to big pharma and a lot of these other things that are starting to play out.Yeah.Well, you brought up the, uh, economic signals and fed policy globally forecasting stable growth right now.Consumer sentiment has slipped a little bit.Unemployment's estimated at 4.3%, but I think the most interesting thing is something that we touched on earlier today, and it's the fact that the Chi- Chicago Federal Reserve is starting to use real time unemployment numbers and what that might mean, 'cause we've, we've talked a little bit about relying on government data and whether it's accurate or not.You know, right now, if we're looking at what the Chicago Federal Reserve is looking at, that's gonna be taking into account, uh, ADP payroll processing.It's gonna be, uh, details coming from Indeed and Google and of course obviously it's gonna factor in some of th- that BLSA.Uh, so the question is, is this gonna be a better way to track data that has become unreliable?We talked about it being directionally accurate.Maybe it will actually be accurate, accurate or as accurate as you can be nowadays.Like, what's the best way to track the unemployment data?Well, yeah, and we talked about this briefly beforehand too.With current technology and the way that things work in the way of the world these days, to look back 30 days or further ago to try to get this information to pull together some number, and this number can be manipulated at any point in time depending on where you pulled the information from, isn't necessarily with the times.To have actual reportable numbers that you can look at in any day and see how it's changed and how it's affected and even get into the nitty-gritty of what the inputs are, I think is a much better way of reporting and will hopefully give us more reliable data.And in theory, that's not manipulated if it's a live stream situation, you know, versus pulling from different places to try to combine it.So hopefully we'll get more accurate, more reliable data and it's something that we can hopefully emulate in other parts of the country as well and with some of the other data that we trade of.Yeah, I mean- I'm hoping that this is a benchmark that is set moving forward.I think it'd be great, honestly, and it's, you know, it's nice that it's real time, right?I don't know how frequently it's going to actually, the data is gonna be shared with us, but it-should remove some of the incentive.Like, if you think about what, what does ADP get for fudging the numbers?Or Indeed or Google?Right.Like, whatYeah, it doesn't seem like there's any benefit to them manipulating the numbers that I'm thinking of in this very short thought process.Yeah.You know?Yeah.I mean, I, I mean, in theory, hopefully most people that are in this are unbiased parties.And I guess, you know, you could argue that everybody has some sort of bias.But- Sure.with that being said, I, I am a big fan of this and I'm hoping that this translates into other numbers, like, you know, inflation and other things like that too, that would be useful to have- Yeah.and more realistic real-time data.So we'll see.Yeah.I think inflation is soYou know, there's so many contributing factors there that- Oh, it's, yeah.everyday people don't care about.And they're all national numbers, and they do nothing to tell you about your, like, your experience in New York City or on the seacoast New Hampshire or in LA or in Montana.Like, it's all different.It's all very diverse.It is.And it totally depends, like, on a bunch of different factors.And a lot of the times what they gauge for inflation doesn't actually have an actual impact on the consumers that are reading the data.So, - Right.you know- Yeah.it's one of those things too where it's like, "Okay, well, if I'm shopping for a new car this month and if car prices have gone up by 15%, I'm gonna think inflation's horrible."Yeah.But if I don't need a new car and if the price of eggs and gas have remained flat, I'm gonna be like, "Inflation's not that big of a deal."Yeah.So it's very personal, because it's just like what you said, you know.Just the same thing with tariffs.How it affects you, you know, is going to be different.If you order something from overseas, you're gonna see that line item, versus someone else that never orders anything from overseas and is just, you know, living their life.It's- Yeah.it's personal.It is.It's, so much of it's personal choice.I was thinking about this with avocados the other day, and I am not an avocado fan, but my ha- I live with 2 avocado aficionados.And what theyWe tend to buy a lot of avocados, bottom line.Okay.And I go to a- Big guac fan.They don't always make it to guac form.Okay.But, so I go to a lot of grocery stores in the area because they all have different things.And this is maybe, like, a little bit too detailed, but here I go anyways, right?So- Let's end it.if I wanna , if I wanna get my Cabot whipped cream, right, I can't go to Hannaford.I gotta go to Whole Foods.And if I wanna get, like, the popcorn that I like, I can't get it at Whole Foods.I gotta go to Hannaford because it's, like, a local little market, right?So it's, it's funny these choices that you make.But everywhere I go, I look at the avocado price and I feel the avocados because they're always like, they're like just little bitches, these avocados.They, they , you know, they'reThere's a joke that, uh, I just, I can't remember.I'm gonna butcher the joke.But it's like avocados are like, you know, not ready, not ready, not ready.Ready, too late, and you missed it.And- Yeah.so I'm always trying to find, like, the perfect avocado that I can just bring home for them to have that night, because otherwise I'm, like, hoping that the avocado's ready in 3 days when we actually have tacos.So if I go to Whole Foods and I get an avocado there, I'm gonna be paying, like, I don't know, 2 bucks an avocado.If I go to Hannaford or Market Basket or something, it might be like a dollar an avocado.But if I go to Joe's Meat Shop where I like to get my fresh butcher meat that's not, like, full of just whatever, God knows what, it's been packaged for preservatives in the grocery store, and I'm like, "Well, I gotta get an avocado while I'm here," it's gonna be 3 or 4 dollars for an avocado 'cause it's a small little meat shop.And that's like a personal choice, and how often does that happen, where you get gas, right, like, where you make these choices and it has your own personal inflation rate attached to it?Yeah, totally.I mean, if I turn left out of my neighborhood, the gas price is like 15 cents different than if I turn right.And it is, it is the same distance.These gas stations are each a mile and a half apart.Yeah.And Gil and I always talk about that, and, you know, speaking of the grocery shopping, this week, you know, I went and bought eggs in-we were at, uh, a local meat market here, McKennon's, and, um, I just grabbed a dozen eggs without looking at the price, brought it up to the register.It was 11.99-for a dozen eggs.And I literally made- At McKennon's?and I, and I neverLike, I'm, I'm not very good at this, but sometimes I just will grab stuff and not look at the price.Yeah.And she rang it through and I looked and I was like, "What?"And I was just like, "Just remove the eggs."And I just go to the local farmer's market here, and I get eggs, a dozen eggs for $3.99.You know, organic farm fresh eggs.So inflation and tariffs are very personal- Yeah.I guess, is what this all comes down to.And it's probably gonna be the same thing with the drug situation as well.Yeah.I'm personally not on any drugs at the moment, but with that being said, if I was, you know, depending on which drugs I am, it would really affect me in the same way that you were just talking about your mom.Hopefully it doesn't have a major impact on it, but it could absolutely, and it's the same thing with everything else that we talk about today.It's difficult to talk about finances with it not being personal.Totally.And, but at the same time, I choose to buy an avocado at one store or another, or not to buy at all.That is a choice.For some people with drugs, and that means prescriptions- You don't have a choice.Yeah, you don't have a choice.And that's- No.You know, I, we always talk about gasoline prices with inflation, but really, like, honestly, most of the time that it's, like, a 10 cent difference per gallon.And what are you saving, like a dollar 50 by going to one place or another?Is that really gonna make or break your month?People are so transfixed on that.And I mean, I get it, I get it to a certain extent, like when you talk about heat and energy prices and natural gas and propane and things like that for winter, I get it.Yes.Yeah.But I think there are a lot of other factors when we talk about inflation and numbers that go into inflation, that would probably give a better gauge about how the average consumer is affected versus how it's been historically benchmarked.Which, speaking of gas prices, can we talk EVs?Yeah, let's talk EVs.Okay.'Cause this was a big month.As of today, this is the last day you can get the EV incentive tax credit.So- I gotta go make some calls.$7,500Yeah, so $7,500, uh, was historically the tax credit, which, um, I'll say maybe not, like, derived a lot of the sales for EVs, but it was certainly a big factor when people were making purchases.Because historically speaking, EVs have been more expensive than gasoline cars.Yeah.Now that that's rolling out, away with this one big beautiful bill, a lot of car companies have been rushing to try to include this incentive in other ways.So you look at Ford and GM are now rolling it into lease programs.Tesla's doing the same thing.And then on the flip side of that, you have other companies that are pulling back their EV sales altogether.Mercedes announced that it's no longer selling their EQ line in America, period.Porsche, who is rolling out their flagship EV, has now said that it's not doing any EVs anymore, and has ceased production on that.And what that's mean is that their stock has sold off 40% over the last year.Because when you think about whenever there's some sort of big tariff change, or whenever there's some sort of EV tax credit being pulled back, people will think, "Oh, well, they just won't sell that product."But the problem is, is they've, Volkswagen in general have sunk in probably 5 to ten billion into building out assembly lines, hiring people, putting a bunch of money into RND, RND to develop these cars, that is now essentially useless.And if you look at Jaguar and Land Rover, they're getting hit pretty substantially as well because of, A, tariffs, and this EV credit going away.Jaguar was famously had a, I'll say a commercial that was about transitioning them to EV, and now that is going away entirely, while they were just hit with a massive cybersecurity attack.So now they're losing $50 million a week, um, in terms of their production.And they were said that they were gonna be shut down for a week.Now they're gonna be shut down entirely, they're saying probably through the end of October, best case scenario.So there's a lot of things that are getting shaken up in the auto world right now, and I think there's going to be a lot of continuous shakeup in there, and a lot of companies that were earmarked to go all EV are starting to pull back on that.And we'll see what the next administration holds.I wouldn't be surprised if in the future again some sort of tax credit comes out.But currently at the moment, um, a lot of car companies are struggling with that, and I think that's probably going to be the case here for the foreseeable future.By the way, none of this is investment advice.Yeah, no- none of it ever is.Yeah.But I think what's, what's shocking to me, because you, you told me about this, this Jaguar commercial, and I never, had no idea what you were talking about, right?And now we're at this place where Jaguar Land Rover is going bankrupt, and they're getting a bailout from the UK government.Do you think it's insurance fraud?I don't know.I'm not gonna speculate.But I am gonna thinkLook, I feel like there are some preconceived biases when it comes to, let's just say, a Land Rover driver, right?Yeah.And if you think that bailouts are hard to get public acceptance of for a company like GM, then if you think about the Land Rover clientele- Right.right?Like, it, it just, it's, it's, it's interesting to me.I don't know what that insurance fraud situation might look like.I'm not well versed in this bailout, but I don't believe that anybody in the US would support suchIt's like if Tesla was getting a bailout right now.And then they would probably argue, like, "Well, our EV infrastructure requires it," which is in- interesting.Colin, do you know what the biggest EV car company in the world is?Is it BYD?It is BYD, as of 2024.Okay.Yes.So in terms of production, we've already fallen behind.Tesla, I guess, was our flagbearer.Um, you know, BYD, even before the Elon Trump-mess of 2024.BYD had taken over and I had never actually seen their cars until I went to England.Hmm.And they were everywhere in England.I saw BYD dealerships and like, I was like, "Wow, what, you know, what's going on here?"And they, they're not likeThey're just like little people movers.They're not nice vehicles, they, but they do the job and they do it efficiently and it's clean and people like them.And it's cheap.It's $22,000.Right.So do we just not care about losing that?Like are we just saying, "Well, whatever.We'll let BYD take over"?Well, this is the thing that's kind of fascinating is that if you wereAnd BYD, I've seen some of their car reviews.They have these cheap people movers that just as you said, is basically just an appliance because- Right.Yeah.right now it's turning into essentially a smartphone- Yeah.where really what you need is a car that charges quickly and gets you from your house to work and the grocery store and pick up the kids.You know, it doesn't need to go 0 to 60 in one second and fly you to the moon.Yeah.All it needs to do is plug into your house and meet this demand.So is it going to be a race to the bottom in terms of price?And there's been a lot of talk about not letting BYD sell in America because it's going to massively disrupt the US-based auto manufacturers.Right.I mean, imagine if the average, you knowI think the average electric car right now is maybe around, you can correct me on this if I'm wrong, is around like $50,000.Yeah.Imagine if you just released an entire car line into the country that was as good as those $50,000 cars, but it was $24,000.You, you would hardly have any reason to go and look at those other companies.You could buy 2 of them and still spend less than a full price electric, whatever the car is that you name.And if that's the case, then that would completely destroy, you know, United States manufacturing and everything like that.And that's actually what Porsche is struggling with right now and a lot of these other high-end manufacturers like Mercedes.They saw China and Earmark China as one of their big opportunities- Big markets, yeah.in terms of growth.And now BYD and it's notAnd there's other car companies there too in China who are doing this.And that industry and market that they were relying on has been sapped up super quick and their profits, like as I'll keep going back to Porsche, they were estimating 5 to 7% profit growth.They just slashed it down to 2.Yeah.Well, and Tesla was, was one of those companies that they- Totally.They were betting on growth, in, in market share growth in China.But China basically just said no.Like literally the country is saying- Yeah.we want BYD and our companies to be the champions in this space.And they have the resources for it, so they can do it at a cheaper cost, to your point.And it's interesting to me because we, we've alwaysWe've kept BYD out, but we let TikTok in.And we're finally at this point where we forced a sale for TikTok, which was delayed, delayed, delayed illegally by the way, but delayed.And finally it got done.It should never have like been here in the first place.China would never let Facebook or Instagram go in there and take over their market.I can't believe we let it happen here.I, I liked all theDo you remember, do you remember all like the, the TikTok like up in arms videos?Oh.Like every, everybody was like crying their TikTok- Yeah.was gonna go away.Was that this year or last year?I don't even remember when that was.It's last year.It was last year.It was at least last year.Um, early, like it was way over a year ago.Yeah.But anyways, it'sI think with some of these decisions, we're, we're very focused on AI and who's gonna win the AI race.Why don't we care about this one?Like what is it about the EV space that we're not going toYou know, Elon was ideally I think positioning to get government support.The reason that he fell in with the Republican Party in the first place is because he wasn't getting that kind of support.Right.Yeah.So, and then he didn't get in the end and we just don't care.We just wrote this off.It's a loss, and I don't get it.I think for me, and I'd be curious to get your take on this, American made to me doesn't mean as much anymore because I know that being American made doesn't necessarily mean that all the components are made in America.Right.It's manufactured in America.Mm-hmm.But to me, as a consumer, I would never willingly spend double the price on something that was American made if I can get the same quality for half the price, because I know that's gonna impact my family, that's gonna impact my finances, that's gonna impact my future in terms of compound growth.Plug for the podcast shamelessly.But with that being said, when you're talking about a huge purchase like a carI mean, I was just talking with, um, one of my clients yesterday who is looking at a Mazda SUV.It's beautiful.But, um, she's looking at a certified pre-owned Mazda and I think it was 29,000 or 30,000, something like that.Uh, BYD and all these other EV car manufacturers that are based out of China, you can get a brand new car for 22,000.They make cars that are boats.You can take a BYD and drive it into a lake, and it is a boat.They have cars that when you drive down the roadThey have cars now that when you drive down the road will use the suspension and jump over obstacles.Okay.There's some crazy stuff out there.I gotta, I gotta spend some time on YouTube, like you do.Just YouTube it if you're ever bored.But I guess-my only point is, is I can appreciate why all the car companies don't want those kinds of car companies to come in.And it's the same thing though, not just with car companies, it's the same thing with other products too.If you're gonna undercut the market so much, it's a big disruption.It helps the consumer, but it might ha- hurt some people on the job front.So, it's one of those things where it's a fine line.Me as a consumer, I would love if a brand new car was $24,000- Yeah, you're right.but if I was working for GMYeah, you're right.Look, this is the reason that we got this big def- deflationary movement in the first place, is that the cost of goods went down because we were outsourcing all the labor.Right.And, you know, thisWhen, when people are anti-Amazon, the argument for Amazon is that they are keeping the cost of not just goods, but also shipping.Just like the infrastructure, the cost associated with Amazon is lower.And without Amazon, we're all left paying more.But we're allYou know,There are people who are very anti-Amazon for whatever their per- their reasons are.It doesn't matter that they're one of the largest US employers and they, they honestly seem to, you know, reduce costs and help the, the consumer.At, at the same time, there are people saying, "Well, those consumers never had a fair chance."And I, I think what's tough, you know, your point about the, you know, made in America, I thinkI don't wanna call it virtue signaling, but it's essentially feeling good about what you're buying, right?Like, if I say, "This is made in America," then I'm supporting an American company, American jobs, right?Like I'm, I'm, I'm trying to support my home team with that purchase, I think, when I buy something that is made in America intentionally, when I'm intentionally doing that.I don't think it's necessarily schadenfreude and I'm just like trying to punish China.Right.I think you're just trying to ho- help the home team.Yeah.I, I agree with you.Like, I could absolutely see it that way, where I'm helping the home team, I'm trying to create jobs.That's likeUm, personally for me, I would much rather go to a local coffee shop than to go buy coffee from a large franchise, you know?Right.I think of myself as helping a more mom and pop store than I am about going and supporting a big corporation.So, I totally see the argument there.But I just don't know, like at what pointAnd there has to be a price point where you look at it and you say, "This is just too expensive to support in a good."Yeah.And I guess everybody has that number with something.Um, and when something is 50 to 60% less, that's kind of tough.But like, if I could go and get a, a cortado from Starbucks for $2 and the mom and pop shop is $6- Yeah.that would cause me to rethink it.And there is that economies of scale at play here, and I don't know what the answer is 'cause it's gonna be different for every industry.But certainly with cars, if something was half the price for the same product, I don't know.Yeah, it's a really good point.And it's, it's hard because there's no threading the needle.Like, there'sAnd we all pick and choose.Like, I will, I will go to my favorite coffee shop after I drop my daughter off at the bus stop.They source their coffee from your favorite coffee shop.Right.And I'm sure there's a markup, right?Like, I know that my cold brew is more expensive at that coffee shopAt my coffee shop than if I just go directly to your coffee shop.And either way, it's more expensive- The source.than Starbucks.Yeah.So- Yeah.I don't know.It's, it's, it's tough.Um, I think that the peopleYou know, Amazon rewards scale and efficiency.And, you know, there are certainly some small businesses that can't play in that field and they, they will suffer.And I don't think it's fair to punish small businesses for not being able to adapt.Yeah, right.But it is kind of the, you know, it's a logical kind of evolutionary consequence, isn't it?It is.I mean, something that I was reflecting on the other day, and you and I have talked about in the process of building a house at the moment, the tariffs that were put on, I'll say, a lot of the goods have caused a lot of our domestic home goods to go up in price, you know?Mm-hmm.Whether it's like faucets, or lighting, or hardware, or whatever it is, is more expensive.So, what the tariffs have done is actually encouraged me to outsource to another country.Because the tariffs are making things in the US more expensive, I am now buying stuff from overseas - Directly.at a lower cost.So, it's like- Yeah.completely the opposite of what should have happened because you should be encouraging consumers to buy domestically.But because all these domestic companies have had to increase their prices, I'm now looking to buy stuff from overseas because even with the tariff, it's significantly less expensive.Yeah.It's, it's- It's a weird backfire situation.It's all gray.It's, it's like nothing works-100% all the time.Yeah.You know, I feel like the right and wrong to me is always black and white, but I feel like morally, like there's, there's some sort of gray area that you can almost get argued in and out of things.Sometimes I hear your perspective or I hear Jessica's perspective, or, or I'll hear a client's perspective, and it will make me rethink my perspective.And I think there's this whole space in our lives that allows for rethinking, whereas, like some things, like, I don't know, murdering my next door neighbor would be- That's bad.just very clearly bad.We know that we can agree that that's bad.That is bad, right?But you could have, uh, for every situation like that, there's like a Les Mis, like, "I need bread for my family" situation, right?Right.And, and that's I think where we see more and more.I don'tWe're running long again 'cause this is what we do.I don't wanna just, like, move past what's actually happened in the markets because you know what's happening in our clients' accounts is kind of what they care about the most.That's fair.So I'm just gonna share my screen here and, and just walk through a couple of things.The first thing we wanna just focus on is the S&P 500 year-to-date total return up 14.35%.And, you know, obviously there's a little bit of room to move here before the close of market today on the last day of September, but roughly this is where we are.It's the 7th positive quarter out of the last 8.This is a bull market, whether we like it or not, we continue to point out, but it's not just a bull market for the S&P, it's also a bull market for gold.So gold is at all-time highs.It's up 45% this year, right, through the first 9 months of the year, and that is obviously outperforming the S&P.It's also outperforming Bitcoin.And the reason I think it's worth highlighting those 2 things is because Bitcoin is supposed to be the gold killer, right?And gold is supposed to be not necessarily, um, the antithesis of the stock market, but people often will invest in gold because they're worried about the stock market.And we're in a situation where people are investing in gold and the stock market is a bull market that continues to go up.So how do we square this?Like, what's going on?Well, that's a great question.Um, something that I think is quite interesting with this is that if you go a little bit further back and just look at these charts, how correlated they actually are.Yeah.Now granted, Bitcoin's just gone absolutely to the moon.Let's take Bitcoin off of that.Yeah, maybe, maybe eliminate Bitcoin from that.But if you actually look at these, is gold really a true diversifier?Yeah.Well- No is the answer.it, it wasn'tIt was at, at points, right?Like, this is on, on Liberation Day- Right.you had the stock market go down and gold go up, right?Um, you've had various times of underperformance from gold.Um, actually, I would say that gold has historically underperformed and then goes up in, like, quick swings and then, um, you know, maybe underperforms again.Who knows?It's fascinating to me that we can sit here and look at, you know, this ETF for, on the screen we're looking at gold versus, uh, SPY for the S&P 500.And over the last 5 years, the market, the stock market is still outperforming gold, but just barely.And when you look at some of these screens over the last 3 years, you've got gold outperforming over the last 10 years.I think you're gonna see gold outperforming again.No, sorry, stock market outperforming again.It'sI don't know if there's anything to, to glean from this except for there are other areas to invest.It's not just the stock market, it's not just the bond market.I won't show the bond market here 'cause I don't wanna make it feel bad, but, you know, Bitcoin, gold, stocks, bonds, US, international.IIf anything, for me, it's just the argument for diversification.Yeah, I totally agree with you.I mean, that's basically what you're seeing there is there's gonna be ebbs and flows where gold goes up and out beats the stock market, then it falls and it's not as good.goes up and outbeats the stock market, then it falls and it's not as good.There's always gonna be news out there that's saying, you know, "Oh, well," you know, it's gonna be, uh, "Inflation's gonna go up and gold's gonna go down," and you know, there's a lot of concerns about X,Y, and Z.There's always a case for the other direction.But try not to time it because it's just not gonna work, and just try to have a diversified portfolio when it comes to including all of these different things.And I think there's a very strong case out there to have Bitcoin as part of your holdings as well at this point because that is clearly here to stay.Yeah, I think at this point, I always said early on that as soon as Wall Street figured out how to make money off of Bitcoin, Bitcoin would be here to stay.And here we are.And here it is.It's, you know, I think that gold, th- the reason that gold is going up is less about, you know, uncorrelated assets or inverse returns or anything like that, and more just a reflection of, you know, psychology.Just, like, where we are in terms of investing emotionally.I think, you know, obviously the dollar has been weakening and so gold can strengthen and, you know, there are those people that feel like the dollar as a reserve currency is short-lived and not here to stay.Gold is not gonna become reserve currency.There's no, there's just no functionality to it.But I think that's why it's going up.It's like these fears of either a stock market crash, so I gotta get into gold now, or, you know, the dollar is weakening and I've gotta make sure I've got gold for the apocalypse.I don't know, honestly.It doesn't ever seem to beThere's noThe argument against gold, historically, is that there's no income that it generates, right?It's just price- It provides very little use.like Bitcoin.Yeah.I mean, people will say, "Oh, well it's a conductor or heat shield," and- Oh, yeah.It's like, I don't know of anybody that's lining up things for a heat shield using gold.Like, that's, I, I, I could be wrong- You can get-but yeah.Anyway.You gotta get your gold plated weights from China, Colin- Yeah.for your, for your home gym.Exactly, that's, that's a thing now, but yeah.It's not real gold, it's just plating.But anyway.Just plating.All right, well- All right, let's wrap it up, Colin.What are your final thoughts?Yeah, let's, let's wrap it up.So, final thoughts, um, big pharma probably gonna be some decent winners out of this recent tariff announcement.Gold has done very well, gold investors have done very well.Stock market has performed very well.Um, telehealth incumbents like Teladoc and Amwell will probably be big winners as well.This is all speculation, this isn't investment advice by any means.EV car markets are going to probably see some headwinds coming up here in the future as they have been over the last few months, and, um, we'll see what shakes up over the next few months because every single month seems to be exciting and new and, uh, keeping people on their toes.Yeah, it, it does seem like there's no shortage of, of things to talk about.I think the last lingering thing that we should probably address is the potential government shutdown, and I'm going to address this by saying- Hmm.it never matters.Like, so far from a stock market perspective, God, I remember the first time I heard about the risk of, as a financial advisor, that I heard about the risk of a government shutdown.I was like, "Oh, man, maybe this is something to, to worry about."But never is.There, I had a friend that worked for the government when I was young, and, um, he'd be like, "You know, a government shutdown sucks 'cause I don't get paid, but then when it's over, I go back and I get my back pay, and then I just had a vacation for a week or 2 or whatever."Right.And there, there are real concerns functionally with a government shutdown, so I don't wanna make light of it, but when it comes to your, like, your portfolio returns and the market returns, that's not where it matters.It's the everyday stuff that you rely on from the government, that's where you worry about the government shutdown, not in your portfolio.Yeah, I mean, certainly it can, I'll say, affect some travel plans here and there because, you know, air traffic controllers and people that, you know, work at airports are often government employees and stuff like that, um, but with that being said, I, I wouldn't put too much stock in it, to be completely honest.There have been 3 government shutdowns since 2018, and during each of those government shutdowns there's been hardly any effect on the stock market whatsoever.In fact, in 2018 when there were the, when there was the 3 day shutdown, the stock market went up.So, uh, try not to put too much stock in it.Um, most of the time, the S&P 500 trades off of earnings and companies and things like that, not so much what the government is necessarily doing at the time.Yeah.Keep in mind that it's just, you know, the things you worry about are the benefits that you receive from the government, not the- Yeah.actual portfolio or stocks like T- like Colin was just saying, so it's something to be concerned about in your lives maybe, it's not something to be concerned about in our inbox or on the phone.Financially.Yeah.All right, Colin.Awesome.Well, I think that's, uh, that's, like, probably a great place to wrap.So, thank you, everybody, for tuning in and, um, we'll be back on for October recap here in about a month.Man, so much to come.All right, we'll talk soon.Thank you.Thanks.Compound Growth with Wheeler and Collin sponsored by CoFi Advisors.Reach out today.Yay!