Compound Growth

April 2026 Market Recap: Relief Rally, Record Earnings, and the Intel Chart Nobody Can Explain

• Compound Growth • Season 2 • Episode 17

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April was one of the more eventful market months in recent memory, and Wheeler and Colin are breaking it all down. The S&P finished the month up 12%, the Nasdaq up 18%, and semiconductors — led by an almost impossible 116% single-month run in Intel — stole the show. But the real story underneath the numbers is earnings: more than 85% of companies that reported beat expectations, with average earnings growth hovering around 15%. That's not a sentiment rally. Companies are actually making more money.

Wheeler and Colin dig into what's driving the semiconductor surge, why Intel's chart looks like nothing either of them has seen before, and how to think about the AI infrastructure build-out without getting swept up in the hype. The conversation also covers tariff uncertainty, the resilience of the consumer despite the noise, and why the US economy continues to confound the skeptics.

Then things get a little philosophical. A discussion about fractional ownership of luxury assets — partial stakes in Ferraris, art, and collectibles — turns into a broader conversation about what anything is actually worth, and whether the financialization of everything is slowly draining the fun out of life. Plus: the Survivor betting market that spoiled the office bracket and confirmed that yes, there is a prediction market for literally everything now.

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Credits:
Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell

Well, we've got a lot to get into today, so- Yes, we do.Fun, fun-filled episode.Yeah.Let's crack it, and we're gonna get through the markets, everything that happened in April, or some of the things that happened in April, 'cause a lot- A lot happened in Aprilhappened in April.And then, uh, we'll talk about a couple of headlines and interesting things that- Some fun stuffwe're curious about, and then- Yeahkind of where we think things are going from here.Welcome to the Compound Growth Podcast with Colin and Wheeler, where we talk all things growth.From financial growth to career growth, personal development to societal progress, we explore how each layer builds on the next, compounding over time to shape who we become.Each week, we break down complex ideas and emerging trends into clear, actionable insights, because growth isn't just about numbers.It's about understanding the world and our place in it.I love it.Yeah.Good plan?You wanna kick it off, or, uh, you want me to kick off with some market stuff?I will kick off with the markets.Do you have the market slides?Yep.Perfect.All right.So what we're looking at is the various indices that we track performance through April.So S&P up 12%, Nasdaq up 18%.This is the last day of April, so things could happen over the course of the trading day today, but we're recording this the morning of the last day of April.Um, and everything kind of ripped this ye- this, this month, right?It's kind of a recovery, relief trade, et cetera.But what's interesting, I think, underneath everything that's going on with the markets is that earnings are ridiculously strong.Yeah, it's crazy.So we're in the middle of earnings season, a little bit more than 50% through.85% of the companies have reported earnings that beat expectations, and the earnings growth is hovering around 15% on average.These are very, very strong results.So the answer to the question, why is the market up, it's because the companies are making more money.Right.Bottom line.Yeah.And there's also more demand- Rightfor certain things- Rightthat companies are producing, which is driving their revenue.Yeah.For sure.For sure.Which I know we're gonna talk about.We are.So one of the, the biggest stories of April was semiconductors.So semiconductors, the SMH is up 34%- Yepas of this morning, month to date.That is a very, very strong one-month return.Yes.So this is the AI, I don't wanna call it a bubble.It's bubble-licious in some ways.Um, but this is the AI build-out, right?This is building out the infrastructure- Yeahfor all this AI compute.What we're looking at right now is Intel, right?So we were talking about semiconductors being up, uh, almost 40%- Yeahin the month of April.Intel up 116% in one month.What the hell is going on with Intel?It's obviously a part of this infrastructure build-out for AI.Yep.It's also kind of a sovereign fund.The government owns a piece of Intel.I was gonna say, it is owned partially by the US government.Yeah.Yeah, it's, it's almost as if the government invested in something, and then it went up because the government invested in something.Well, it goes to show that the government alsoI think there's a lot of- Insider knowledge?Not, not insider knowledge.I don't think that's it.I think it's, there's a lot of security risk, and I think that the government probably wants to get ahead of chip production for things like military applications as well.Yeah.No, I think you're right, and I think that this is kind of insulating against the risk of Taiwan Semi.Like, it's- For surejust trying to make sure that, you knowThey, the government picked their horse, and they said, "Intel-" They're the onedead company- Yesis one.They basically Frankensteined this thing back, back to life.Start over.You can look at Intel on a multi-decade round trip back to new highs.So the last high we're looking at here is the tech bubble, right?So early 2000 is the last time that we saw Intel at these highs, 26 years ago, and all of a sudden this year, it just skyrocketed.I don't think I've seen a chart like this.This is insane.If you saw this with Cisco, you'd be like, wow, or Citibank.Citibank is still not all that high.Citi- yeah.But this does not compute.No.Literally.It does not make sense to me.No, I just don'tYeah.So I think, I have, I have a- Can you imagine if you had some call options on that?Imagine if you shorted it.Yeah.Um, I think, I have a client who, whenever the client reaches out to me about something, I look at it as at a contrarian indicator.So if the client reaches out to me and says, "Hey, what do you think about silver?"I'll be like, "Well-" You short silver"I thought silver was risky, but now I think it's going down."And he reached out about Intel just last week, and he's like, "Oh, it's on Intel-" To purchase.No, yeah.He's like, "Hey, I've seen what's going on with Intel," and, and look, I'm not saying that Intel's a bad investment.None of this is investment advice.But when I look at a chart like this, it scares the shit out of me.Yeah.I'm like, "I don't wanna touch this."That's not sustainable.That does not make sense to me.Yeah.And I think you're seeing that with a lot of semiconductors right now, and you saw it with some of, like, the new age energy names a little while ago, like the IRENs of the world, like the, the, the former Bitcoin miners that are now moving into private energy.Y- you get these run-ups, and then there's gotta be a pocket underneath.You can't continue to go vertical.You shouldn't go vertical in the first place.But- The entire stock market from 2012 is up 220%.This is up 116% in one month.Yeah.Um, and it's Intel.And we know what Intel is, right?Yes, we do.So I have aI was trying to think about, like, my argument against Intel because I don't own it.Mm-hmm.Full disclosure.And I wanna make sure I'm not just being sour grapes, like-You shouldThis, this company is horrible, and this stock is going down because I don't own it, right?I don't want it to be like, "I missed it."You don't wanna be a, a contrarian.You wanna look at it analytically.Right.And so I'm looking at it, okay, well, why is, why are all these semiconductors up?They're up because of demand from the build-out rate.Mm-hmm.And that demand cannot sustain.Like, they cannot continue to grow these earnings at the r- at the rate that they're growing.No.I don't think.Right?Over the long run, and I tend to invest in stocks for the long run.However, if I apply that same narrative to Nvidia, does it hold?And here's theI want you to poke holes in this.Okay.Here's where I landed, all right?If I have the option to invest in the m- the company that creates the iPhone or the company that builds the iPhone, I feel like I want to invest in the company that creates it.I don't wanna necessarily invest in the company that builds it because I feel like that company, their margins can be squeezed, they can be replaced, et cetera.They don't have the moat.The company that designs seems like it's a better bet to me for the long run because they kinda control the outcome, right?It's all because of them.But there's 2You'reIt's 2 different products, though.What Intel creates is very different than what Nvidia creates.Intel is not creating.They're just- Well, Intel does create chipsthey used to be the chip creator, but now they're just kind of like the piggyback, right?Like, they're not leading theYou, you don't go to Intel- Are you saying they're not manufacturing it?I think they are manufacturing it, but I think when you have Apple out-chip you, and it's Apple.Fair, but still, though, predominantly, I would take a guess.I will still bet that the PC market is much bigger than the Apple market.Well, I don't think it's necessarily a computer comparison that I'm like, I'm trying to get at here.I feel like who's driving the ship, right?I would rather be the propulsion, the thing behind the chip moving forward, rather than the thing that's moving forward because of the propulsion.Fair.I mean, I guess, but you can't have a good graphics processor unit without an equally as good chip.And Nvidia doesn't make the chip, and Apple doesn't sell their chips.So the chips have to come from somewhere else.Well, no, I know that Apple doesn't sell their chips to other people.Right.But I guess my th- my, my, the way I've looked at Nvidia is that essentially the, they are the propulsion.They're the driving force, and they might partner with other pe- like, there's AMDs out there, there's Taiwan Semiconductor.Yeah, I mean, they make GPUslike, whatever.So to me, none of that matters without Nvidia.Fair.That is fair, but in the same way that Nvidia doesn't matter without a chip.They need somebody to build it.Correct.But couldn't Company Z build it the same way that Company B builds it?I don't know.I mean, you look at Apple Silicon, like, it took a very, very long time for Apple to roll out their own silicon.Yeah.And that was, like, a very difficult process.I mean, you could say the same thing about Nvidia, like, why don't more people just make GPUs?Yeah.Yeah.That would be the hole that I poke.But, but, but why don't they, is the question, right?Well, I think it's really difficult because they're so far ahead.It would be like you and I coming out with a cellphone company now.Yeah.You know?Like, I wouldn't evenI mean, we're probably not the best candidates to start that.But it would be very difficult to start something from scratch when someone else is already so far ahead.When it comes to a physical product, I think software is much quicker to easier, and easier to scale fast.Yeah.But when you're talking about a physical product that requires manufacturing and office space and hiring engineers and all that stuff, like, that's the part that I struggle with.Like, this, this computer has an Intel chip in it.And it was manufactured and developed, I assume, by Intel.But between that and Apple Silicon, I don't really know what else is out there.Which isWell, I think my overall thought on this is I, I kind of would've assumed that if this were gonna happen, like, if Intel was gonna just, like- Be tied to thisWell, well, exactly.Like, it would've happened s- Like, why- That's my question markwhy now?is why now, because you would've thought, in theory, that the chips and the graphics processing units would be tied together.Yeah.You know?I think the why now is literally political.I think it's we've- Probablywe've bet on the horse, right?And, you know, I'm sure you could unpack this, but is the risk of a slowdown the same?And, and it might be.Is the risk of a slowdown in the build-out of this infrastructure the same for Intel as Nvidia?Like, are they essentially tied to the same outcome?That's what I'm curious about, because I don't know the answer.I don't know either, but that's a good question.It could be, and, and it could be that Intel is, like, a great opportunity for a long-term investment, like if this is a five, 10-year- Yeah, surebuild-out, right?And just bec- I would say whenever you see something kind of like skyrocket like this, the air comes out from underneath it at some point, right?And when that does, is that a buying opportunity, or is it, like, a reassessment,When it comes to computers in general, umAnd for those of you that don't know, the general components of a computer is you have your graphics processor unit, which is what Nvidia and AMD makes, then you have your chip, which is basically takes everything and uses the semiconductors and then processes it, and then you also have the RAM that's inside of it.So you have all these different components, and essentially what I don't know the answer to is if Nvidia has grown and scaled so much with their graphics processor units, which really their growth started actually around COVID, and AI really picked it up dramatically- Yeahum- Well, they pivoted from video game.I mean, they still do the video game- Yeahstuff and the computer, but yeah.Yeah.So they are manufacturing that, and to your point, in theory, the chip companies should've rallied with them more.Yeah.So, like youIf you look at the semis over the last, like, decade, they've been great, this seems hyperbolic to me.Well, it seems disconnected.Well, the other thing too is, and I don't know about the profitability, I mean, I can't even remember, what's the PE of Intel now after this has run up?Well, that, the thing is that earnings are going up so much that the PEs are not expansive like you would expect them to be.They'reIn some cases, Nvidia's been con- contracting their PEs, and now you're starting to see that with some of the semis.Yeah, because Nvidia's not overvalued, and- Yeahyou know, this is not investment advice.But, you know, based off of its PE ratio, it's not hyperbolic- Well, the-to your pointwe just talked about tech outperforming, and semis are obviously a part of that.Their earnings are up 40% year over year.Sure.So that's why they're outperforming.It makes sense.Like, if you think about the resiliency of the market, I keep talking about this with our clients, you know, if, if we have, you know, the Iran war, a new Fed chair, you know, um, private credit issues- YeahAI threat, slowing economy, blah, blah, blah, if you have all of these risks and the market stays resilient, and you're like, "Why is the market staying so resilient?Why doesn't the market, like, wake up to what's happening or whatever?"It's because of earnings.It's they're seeing the earnings.Yeah.I mean, historically speaking, politics and earnings and market performance, I'll say politics and market performance are oftentimes quite disconnected.Yeah.Not all the time.You know, certainly war can break out and tariffs and things like that, but the market cares more about earnings.Yeah.I think it's just that there's, underneath everything, and we've, we've, we've kinda commoditized and financialized everything in this world now, but I think there's, like, war is part of that, politics a part of that, Cold War is part of that.I think Intel is the perfect example of America trying to win AI, right?It is.I think the same way that we went from, you know, manufacturing drones with Chinese components to making it illegal- Bringing them in the houseto manufacture drones with- Yeahbut it's like we're trying to own the technology, and we're losing in cars, and we're losing in drones.We're losing in a lot of different places, so we're betting on Intel.Yeah, and I don't think the government will allow us to lose this race, or at least they don't want us- Yeahto lose this race.They don't get to control the outcome.Yeah, we don't get to control the outcome, but I think there's a, a big fear there that companies will take us over in these departments, which won't be good for things like cybersecurity- Yeahor war or, you know, just national security in general.Yeah.Um, so I mean, I don'tLike, it's probably not that surprising that this is happening.Yeah.But it is odd that the chips and the GPUs are so disconnected from each other.But, you know, I, it's been a long time since I've done my computer engineering classes.And I don't really know how the AI components are built out differently.But I think- I don't think you're far offNvidia's, I think Nvidia, though, is probably generating more cash flow from maybe the corporate space than the Intel is potentially, so I'm wondering if that's what it comes down to, and it will require a little bit of research, butI think it's also Nvidia has SaaS.Like, they're literally- That's true.That's like Oraclesubscription stuff.Right?So that's, it'sI think that's part of it too.But I do think, like, we're getting, we're getting very excited about certain pockets of the market right now, and when I see this, it scares me.The next chart, though, reminds me that all-time highs are not a good reason to sell anything.If I- Yeah, you sent me that article- Yeah.about buying low.Yes.Y- yeah, exactly.Talk, talk me through that.Right.So everybody says, "Well, what you wanna do is you wanna buy low and sell high."And for a while now, we've been saying, well, it might be better just to buy high and sell higher right?Yeah.Like, instead of trying to find that low.But I, I think that-What I get concerned with, with, like, hyperbolic returns, like what we're seeing with Intel right now, is that it, it makes me nervous.I'm like, "Well, this isn't realistic, and it needs to come back in at some point, so should I sell?"When I'd rather own a company for 5 to 10 to 15, 20 years and never have to worry about selling it because it's a long-term compounder.Right.That's easier.I think when people see the markets at all-time highs, it's frequently quoted as a reason to sell, when in reality, it's more often the case a reason to buy.And the chart that we're h- looking at right now is from Charlie Bilello at Creative Planning.This is looking at one-year, 3year, and 5year numbers.Buying the S&P 500- Mmindex at all-time highs over any of those time spans has led, on average, to higher returns than any other day.Not just lows, but just, like, any other day on average.Yeah.And it's not, it'sHe's, he's kind of cherry picking here.This is a September 1989 to April 2026 chart.But I think it's, it's apropos.I think it, it works, because this is a modern technology stock market that we're dissecting here, and looking at what things would've done in the 1970s during stagflation isn't exactly a fair comparison.I don't know how much that would've changed the chart, but I can tell you that this does not suggest that buying at all-time highs is a bad thing.If you don't believe in buying high- YeahI'll say, then you would never own an index.Right, 'cause it, it rewards the high.Because literally, it rewards the high- Yeahthe high earning companies.You know?IAnybody that looks at the S&P and knows what a heat chart is, which basically shows the percentage that each company makes up of the index, would understand that in order to make up a bigger part of the index, you have to have very positive growth.Mm-hmm.Which would mean that inherently, whenever you're buying the S&P 500, you're buying a momentum play, but not only that, companies at a high.Yeah.They're never going to say, "Intel is down 60%.""You should buy.""You should buy it.I'm gonna overweight that- Yes, yesin the S&P 500."We'll put more into the S&P.That will never happen.No.So, it's- Nobased off of this, it makes a lot of sense, and this is honestly why momentum plays continue to do very well, and why buying high does kind of make some sense, because if 53% of all investment is passive, then you have more and more money going into companies that are performing well.Yeah.You're rewarding them for their performance.You are.That is a good thing.It is good when markets goAnd people look at markets going up, and they get scared.And I get it, 'cause I look at that Intel chart and I get scared.Right.But we have to look at markets going up as a good thing if you are investing in the stock market, and stop worrying about the timing aspect of it.Right.It is.Yeah.I think, I was just going over this with a client that was debating on when to do a Roth conversion.Yeah.And, you know, the answer to that is, if you think the market's gonna go up, then soon.Yeah.That's true.Yeah.That's the answer, because you want the appreciation in your Roth IRA versus a traditional IRA, that way your future RMDs and future tax obligations to your next of kin are lower, versus having it in a Roth.Yeah.And the market goes up 72% of the time- YeahI think is the answer.Enough, it'sLook, you know, it's funny, I've heard these stats so many times, and it's somewhere between, like, 70 and 85.It doesn't matter to me.It's whatever.Whatever the number is.It's however you look at it.It's more than 50 to 60%.Yes, it is, it is more than the average.Yes.And I think, yeah, ILet's move forward before I go down another rabbit hole on this.I have one more chart for you.Okay.Um.I'm looking.And we're looking at CAR.See how this leads?I see.I see what you're doing, right.See what I'm doing here?Yes.But, so Avis is ticker C-A-R, CAR.We're looking at some crazy banana pants GameStop-type stuff here, right?Short squeeze.It's notA short squeeze.It's not the same as the, you know, the moment that was GameStop, but we're looking at, uh, CAR going from, let's just call it 0 to 380 in 60 seconds.Um, over the course of, of the month of April, not even a whole month, um, this stock went up 380% in less than a month.And then back down.And then back down.It's still up 26% in April, which is, uh, solid.It's still better than the Nasdaq and the S&P, but the ride is not the same.And- It is notyeah, it is short squeezed up, and there's some crazy fishy stuff, hedge fund stuff happening here that Avis is, like, crying foul and saying, "Hey, they manipulated this," blah, blah, blah.I think that you don't see activity like this in aYou don't see it in a bear market.Nope.And you don't see it in a calm market.You see it in an exuberant market more often than not, and I think when people see this, that they get excited, and then they chase it, and they get, they try to time it.And I think this is a, a really good opportunity to remind people that if you have a $50 stock and it doubles to 100, that's great.You doubled your money.It only has to go down 50% to get back to where it was, right?Yeah, that's a good point.The law of numbers- Yeahstates that it's much more difficult in terms of a percentage to double something than it is to lose half of it.Yeah, yeah.It's much easier.this is what people forget when they look at, like, why is, is the bubble a concern?It's because of the speed that things go down but also the fact that going, you don't have to go down as far as you went up, right?It's in terms of percentage return, and when you look at the Nasdaq bubble, the, the tech bubble, I just call it the Nasdaq bubble, but the tech bubble at the turn of the century was the Nasdaq got crushed.The S&P was down.The Nasdaq was the one that got crushed- Yeahand those are the names like Intel- Yeahand Cisco, et cetera, that were all driven up.But you don't, y- you know, buying high at something like that that's already arguably overvalued in the short term is a good opportunity to increase your risk because it doesn't take as much to go back down.Yeah.We, uh, I have a few friends that were big into Dogecoin back in the day.Doge, yep.Doge, yeah.And I remember, now this obviously wasn't a short squeeze, but I think it applies.When that went up, I remember my friend went from having 6 or 7,000 in there to having close to, like, 150 grand- Yeah.in a matter of- Yeaha few months.And, you know, everybody on the Reddit forums with the little rocket ship.Yeah, yeah, of course.They're like, "To the Moon."To the Moon.To the Moon.Mooning.And his plan was to ride this thing up and sell it and pay off his mortgage, and then it started to go down a little bit, and then it just absolutely cratered.And now I think he has 12K back in it.And, uh, the question becomes, and I would encourage every investor to think like this, if you have a moment where a stock has rallied like this, what would feel better for you?Selling and taking some profit- Mm-hmmand doubling your money or whatever the multiple is, or watching it go up and then missing out- Yeahif it comes back down?Because, you know, it, everybody says it might be a good stock, but you never know what's gonna happen.Enron was a strong buy for a very long time.Obviously, I'm not saying that this is Enron, but you have to ask yourself, is the fear of loss greater than, you know, the opportunity of the win, or would you rather stake it out for something bigger and you dos- don't care about the money?Yeah.And there's no wrong answer, but, uh, for me, I remember I owned Nvidia when it was 16 bucks a share or something like that.Mm-hmm.And I remember it went up to 40, and I sold it, and I was like, "This is great."Mm-hmm.You know?Doubled, more than doubled my money, super pumped about it, and I was young at the time, and it helped me pay off some bills.And then obviously since then it's gone absolutely nuts, and if I would've held that, I would've made more money.I have 0 regrets because at the time- Yeahit really helped me out, and I diversified into other things.I think that's the thing is that you have to haveLike, I, I've had that experience along the way where I, you know, sold some crypto component of the portfolio and paid off student loans, right?It's- Exactly, yeahyou have to, you have to feel good about the wins, not af- not be afraid of the wins.And then I think you sometimes need to recognize the difference between investing and gambling or investing and luck.I think sometimes there's a difference between fortune and luck, and that's a whole other conversation, but sometimes people don't recognize how lucky they are.They mistake it and think that they're good- Rightwhen they were really just lucky.Yeah.I know.It is, it is a pretty crazy thing to think about because this does happen more than I think people think.Yeah.You know, stocks do break out quite frequently.Just in April, you know, we're just talking about these 2, but there are more examples.And, uh, I'm not saying that, you know, you have to make a decision immediately or anything like that, but, you know, to have all of your net worth tied up in something where it can become such a huge portion of it, I think you have to ask yourself is, you know, is it better to have the money?And, you know, an example of this was I was just looking at an RSU case where a client was awarded some stock, and, uh, it went from being worth, like, a couple hundred thousand to almost $10 million of this person's portfolio.And, you know, his idea was, "I'm gonna ride it to the moon."But the idea is as well, okay, well, what are you gonna do with another $10 or $20 1000000?Is that gonna dramatically change your life?Yeah.'Cause at a certain point too, if something is so concentrated, put that away, and then, like, there's no harm in diversification.You're still gonna get growth out of it.Is it gonna be as parabolic?I don't know, but at the end of the day, it would suck a lot if that 10 million went back to 200,000.Yeah.And sometimes it's smaller numbers.Like, y- we had a client the other day who was like, "Look, I'm, you know, things are a little tight right now.I could either continue doing what we're doing, or I could take out some piece of my portfolio and pay off the truck."And he's like, "What do you think?You know, what, what are the odds that, you know, we outperform my 7% interest on the, on the truck or whatever?"Yeah.I'm like, "Look-"You know, I, I think there's a very good chance that the stock market will continue to rally.We're in the, we're in a good bull market.We could go up another 40% over the next couple years.I don't know.Yeah.I can't say anything for sure.But th- we're in the middle of a bull market, and it's a bull market till it's not.Um, but that being said, let's say you get a 40% return- Mmover the next one year or 2 years or whatever.Incredible.Great return.How much does that change your life versus just not having this car payment to deal with?Right.Like, I think sometimes these decisions can beThey can feel really big, and, like, opportunity is great.I'm not talking about doubling that money.You know?And I'm talking about doing it over a couple of years, like a return that you might get over a couple of years.But if you're feeling stressed out right now and you might, like, be happy to save $700 a month on your car payment, like, just do that.That makes sense.Yeah.It's okay.A lotI mean, pretty much every financial decision is personal in some way- Totallyor another.Yeah.Yeah.So you just have to figure out what's right for you.But speaking of cars- Let's talk about carsI have to get into this because we've been talking about this, and I know you're probably sick of me talking about cars a little bit.I support your love and passion.Okay.But for anybody and any viewer that doesn't know, I am obsessed with anything car related since I was a kid.I think I mentioned this in a prior episode.Yeah.But my parents couldn't get me to read anything except for car books and magazines.So that's what I grew up on.And the reason why this kicked off is because of 2 different things, but I, I wanna start with a quote, which is, "Everybody wants to be wealthy in the year in which they imagine it."Yeah.Okay?What I mean by that is when I was growing up, I had a model car on, in my room, and it was a Lamborghini Diablo, and then I had eventually later on a Ferrari F430 as I got older.Those are my 2 dream cars.Okay.You know, at the time, they were obviously very expensive, exotic cars, but they have since grown to appreciate.And something happened beginning of this year, which was pretty unbelievable, and the exotic car market has changed dramatically over the last few years.So what are theWhat's an exotic car?Good question.So an exotic car, think, think brands.Okay.Think Ferrari.Lamborghini.Think Lamborghini.Think Porsche.And then within certain brands, there are subcategories of there.So Lexus, as an example, in 2012, I believe, made a model called the LFA, which wasIt took them 9 years to produce this car.They sold it for around 500 to $650,000.They lost a ton of money on every single one that went out the door because the production cost was so high.Mm.They were in production.They were building this car, designed it.They were making it out of aluminum, and they were about 4 to 5 years into the design of this car, and then they were like, "You wanna know what?It'd probably be better in carbon fiber."Scrapped the whole thing and redid it.That's great.Yep.So also Audi has, like, the R8.Ford produced the GT, which was a remake of the GT40, which was the famous race car- Yeahfrom Ford versus Ferrari.Yeah.Great movie.Um, great movie.So long story short, there have been some very important exotic cars that have been released and that have accumulated in value over the last few years.And when I say accumulated in value, there have been some absolutely parabolic outbreaks in regards to performance in these markets over the last few months, and one in particular was a Mecum auction that was very, very famously published, and it was the Phil Bachman auction.And it was a guy that was a very famous Ferrari collector that would always get the very last production model of each one of these cars and customize it in colors that no one would ever imagine to pick.Yellow with a red interior- Mm-hmmand, like, a blue stripe.Just crazy, outlandish stuff, but it would always be the very last production run.And I have some results from this auction.When was this auction?Uh, I believe it was March of this year.Okay.Okay.So I just grabbed a few different examples of these Ferraris from where they were to where they ended up in auction.Okay.So in 2020 to 2021, I just grabbed 5 out of these.There was the Ferrari Enzo in 2020 and 2021, which was valued from two and a half to three and a half million dollars.2025, it was worth right around 4 to four and a half 1000000.Most recent auction result, $17.9 1000000.For a car.One car.One car.Ferrari F50, same auction, 3 million to four and a half million is what it was valued around COVID time.2026, it had gone up to 5 million to 7 1000000.Auction result, $12.2 1000000.F40, 1.2 to 2 1000000.Few years later, now worth 3 to 4.Most recent auction result, 6.6 1000000, 500% increase, 500% increase, 300% increase on that one.Ferrari 288 GTO, same thing.The list goes on and on and on to all of these cars that everybody has been looking at.Lamborghini Countach a few years ago, easily pick one up for 300,000, now 800,000.An Audi R8, relatively inexpensive car in regards to what we're talking about here, $100,000, now valued at 250.We just saw one yesterday.Oh, really?That was the- That was, that was- Oh, okaythat was the car.Yep.Okay.Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale, one car that I always really wanted in my life, was valued a few years ago at 130,000.One just sold for a million.Okay.So- So what is your, what is your thought here?What's amazing about this is I think this speaks to several different things, which is, 1, the quote that I had before, which is everybody wants to be rich in the year in which they imagined it.The demographic that sought after these cars is now coming dramatically into some serious money, and if you look at the predominant buyer pool of these types of cars, they're the people that didn't have money a few years ago that now do through either, I'll say, like RSU money, whether it's Bitcoin money, whether it's, like, whatever it might be, very high earnings, selling businesses.So these types of people are starting to gain a good chunk of money, and it's going to these things.The other thing that's happening right now is supply and demand, and this is a perfect example of economics.There is a extremely limited supply of every single one of these cars.All the ones that I referenced have less than probably 1,200 of them ever made, and they're the last ones that were ever naturally aspirated and manually, or manual transmission.Some of them are paddle shifters, but we'll gloss over that.So you have a very wealthy pool of individuals chasing a very small market, and then on top of that, there's this FOMO situation going out.And I think about this myself as well, and if I have a car that was on my shelf when I was growing up that I thought, "One day if I work hard enough, I'll be able to obtain it," now I can't.Right.Unless I bust my ass and try to get money as quick as possible and shell it out, which I'm not gonna do.Yeah.But that's the mindset.And now, PE has started to recognize these, and there are specific funds that are buying up these pools of cars and then using them as investments that you can buy into.And what's kind of fascinating here is if you look at certain markets, and collector markets in general, so the S&P from 2012 to 2023, 2024, was up 220%, like we talked about before.The exotic car market is up, depending on which indices you're kind of looking at, anywhere from 300 to 900%.The Rolex market is up 400%, and the contemporary art is basically in line with the S&P 500.Is it an asset class?No.I don't think so either.Dude, PE, why do we have to PE everything?I don't know, but that's- Like, why do you wanna own the tire instead of the car?Like- The-it's just, it's a part of the car.It is.It is.It's a part of the car, but it's, 1, kind of depressing because I don't wanna say PE ruins everything, but as someone that's, like, genuinely, like, into cars, like, I really enjoy the engines and the mechanics- Yeahand driving them, and it's really fun for me.Now private equity has stepped in and driven the prices up so much that I don't know if it'll ever happen.But on top of that, I can't go out and buy a sports car right now because there are none that are out there.They're keeping it out of reach.This is kind of like a weird bastardization of what a lot of, of this, of this country feels like right now.That it's- Yeahthe same thing with like, "I can't afford to buy a house.I can't afford to raise kids.Now I can't afford my luxury dream car."Yeah, but on top of that, no, hardly any companies are making convertible cars anymore.Hardly any of them.That's, yeah.There are basically no sports cars left.You know, you can get, like, a Mazda Miata, a Porsche, which Porsche has dramatically increased their prices.Well, is that a demand issue, though?Like, are there fewer midlife crisises happening?Maybe, but there's also no manual transmissions.There's, and everything's hybrid.Like that and the Miata.So no one wantsYeah, they're great, but no one wants to drive a sports car that weighs 6,000 pounds, you know, that requires a charge.You want the engine.I guess my point with this is that when it comes to these collector markets, I think it's actually quite predictable in a lot of ways because if you think about that quote, people want to get rich in the year in which they imagined it.Generation and your generation is now starting to come into some money.You're getting into the higher earning years of your life, and people are selling businesses, they're, you know, getting great packages with new jobs, whatever it might be.The next generation, I'm curious what they're into that will also skyrocket, and you could say the same thing about, like, Pokémon cards had a huge run, and they're still very, very valuable- Well-depending on what you're looking atI think that you'reI don't even know if we're done, uh, which, whatever generation is driving these particular cars.Like, it's- Yeah, why not?We ha- we saw this.Didn't we see this with the Ro- the Rolex thing, like- Yeah, it's still upa few years back?Yeah.Right?And it's, or, like, um, sneakers, like, it's-people are spending their money onitems that were used to just be, like, household goods on some level, and now they're collector's items.Like, I get that a Rolex was always a Rolex, but it's not the same as it was.No, it's not.You know?Yeah.And, and look, I mean, these things aren't liquid, but they are more liquid than you might think.We have, um, a friend that has a Ferrari, and it's a very nice Ferrari, and he bought it for a good sum of money, and he went in to take, to get it serviced the other day, and, um, he was offered a trade-in for it that was almost double what he paid three and a half years ago.So a lot of people think that, you know, oh, these cars are very superfluous and, you know, investments.And I agree with you.They are very expensive.It's absolutely crazy to pull $100,000 to $200,000 and put it into a car that you could crash, and it loses all of its value.Of course it is.But, um, it is very interesting to look at some of these markets, you know, whether it's, like, going back to the tulip bulbs to look at, like- Sureyou know, the watches that blew up, and then the same thing, there's, like, pockets of real estate that have exploded.And you're seeing this now in the collector car market to the point where, um, a lot of people are now afraid to drive their cars because they've gotten so valuable.You know, someone would probably be okay with driving, depending on your net worth, maybe 150 or $200,000 car, but when your $200,000 car goes to be worth a 1000000 Mm-hmmand you have a $2.5 million portfolio, well, you're never gonna drive that.What happens if you crash it or someone swings open the door into it?You, you brought up, I think it was Lexus.Mm-hmm.And, the, you know, they build a car, and then they're like, "What if it was carbon fiber?"And they, like, do it all over again.Yeah.Right?YourTo your point, they weren't doing that to make a million dollar car.No.Right?You have to have- No one actually even bought those out of the gate.Right.Like, no one wanted one, and then they stopped making them, and then a few years later, people were like, "Wait a second.They hardly made any of these, and these are an amazing car."Right.But there's, the, the reason that they're amazing is because there was passion behind the product, right?It's like it- Totallyit was meant to beI sometimes think, when I, when I appreciate cars-it's for 2 reasons.It's, 1, because I enjoy the way it gets me from A to B.The convenience of it.Right.So that's the first reason.The second reason is when there's kind of, like, that art level to it, right?Like, it's, when it's thatYou know, the reason that I think Ford versus Ferrari is so interesting, there's a lot of different reasons, but one is, like, the, just the dedication to creating the best outcome.There is value to that, to me.If it's s- I don't know that things are being bought for that value, for either of the 2 values that I just described.It's really more because it's worth something.It's, like, literally the same reason you buy Bitcoin- Yeahor art that you don't actually appreciate, but it, it increases in value.Yeah.I mean, y- I guess you could take several arguments to this, which is, you know, you're, now what you wanted is much more expensive, and you're gonna have a hard problem affording it.Yeah.But at the same time, when you do buy it, you're probably not gonna lose much money on it.In the same way that if you look at the collector art market, like, people think that art is a good investment.If you look at art in general, pretty much all of the best investing pieces are from, like, the top 4 or 5 most famous artists.Yeah.You know what I mean?Like, people are chasing the Monets and the Picassos and, you know, the Rembrandts of the world.You know, it's much more difficult to get a startup artist and- But most of those-have that appreciatehave similar trajectory to what you're talking about.Like, they weren't, like- Totallythey were not famous at the time that they were, like, they were painting them, half of them.Absolutely.I think sometimes things are just, they're just worth what we decide they're worth.Yeah.And it's a s- in some of these markets, like, the stock market is a very large market with a bunch of companies and investors jockeying to determine worth, right?And it's liquid, and it can change on the drop of a dime.Yeah.Whereas this type of market has fewer components, fewer players.It's much more inefficient.Yeah.and it's much, it's much more illiquid.Right.So it's a very interesting kind of like counterbalance to this.And I, I understand that private equity and private credit play a role in, in, like their world is a v- is more about stability than anything else, and it's ideally about finding profits or returns or investments that you can't get anywhere else.I just think it's funny the way we continue to democratize things.Like you can't afford this Ferrari, but you can afford the fender, you know?And so here you get that piece of the car.Well, yeah, it's like I don't care about the investment side of it.You just want to enjoy the car because it's your passion.Right.Um, I think it's kind of a shame that, to be honest, everyone tries to pull value out of art.Everybody tries to pull value out of everything.And when I say art, I don't mean just like art pieces.No, I know.But, you know, whether, whatever your passion or art is, um, it is kind of sad just how capitalism spoils the fun.I'm so glad you said that.I'm just very quickly going to share the story of Survivor.So here's- Wait.I haven't seenIs this the new episode?I'm not gonna, nah, I'm not gonna tell you what happens.Okay.Sounds good.Don't worry.Okay.Don't worry.So in our office we have a Survivor pool, right?Yes.And we all did kind of a bracket March Madness style Survivor brackets, and this is not the first foray into like a Survivor bracket type thing I've had.Back, it was like 2000, I wanna say 2008, 2009, when I was living in LA, my friend Greg did like a, like week by week thing.Like everybody had to place an order who they thought was gonna get voted out next, right?Mm-hmm.And if you, you know, said in the first, you said the winner was gonna get voted out first, then you've lost the entire thing, right?Basically.It's very hard for you to, to win that moving forward because you guessed wrong very early on.And like 3 or 4 or 5 weeks into this challenge, he sends an email and he's like, "Hey, so I questioned Sandy why, you know, how she could keep getting these right.Like every week she's right.What's going on?"And she told me that she looked up the results, and she found it on the internet.And- So she cheated?Yeah, so she cheated.Okay.And so he's like, "So we're not gonna do this anymore."And ever since then, that was almost 20 years ago, I've known that the results are s- for Survivor are out there in the world.Like you can find them, especially now that they tape the final r- they, the results show, the who wins, on the island- You're rightafter the final show.They used to do the live event, so at least that part you didn't necessarily know.Yeah, they used to separate it.But now it's all happening over the course of a month and on this island.So Dan came into the office the other day, and he's like, "Look, I was looking at the odds market on- Noon Survivor, and, uh, it looks like there's like an 83% chance that so and so wins Survivor."And I'm like, "What?"There's, there's that.You can findIt's not Kalshi, I think.It's like, it's like, uh, Coinbase or something.I'm like, "You can see that there?"He's like, "Yeah.Isn't that crazy?Like there, there's a market for everything."I'm like, "Yeah.That's public information.Like you can go figure this out."He's like, "No, I don't know.I'm not really sure."I'm like, "I'm, I'm pretty sure you can go figure this out.People like, there's hundreds of people that work on that show, and word gets out, and blah, blah, blah."And he's like, "Well, they have, you know, one for each week as well, so I'll just see if they're right about who gets voted out tonight, and then we'll know for sure."He's been right every time.He's been right.And he's right.He didn't mean to.He's not cheating.We al- we filled our bracket out a while ago.Yeah.No, no, no.And he definitely didn't- We filled it out before it even kicked offhe didn't mean to spoil this, but it's one more example- Do you know who wins?now I do.so glad I wasn't a part of that conversation.Isn't it horrible?That's so heated.I'm so happy for you- Yesthat you don't know.Um, and the point is we financialize this.We, we can bet on the outcome of a reality TV show that is prerecorded.It's already been taped.This has happened in the past, and you can still go out there and gamble on it, and that doesn't make any sense to me, and it sucked the fun out of our Survivor bracket.That sucks.But yeah- YeahI don't know.Capitalism does take the fun out of things, and it's just like all the sports betting stuff, you know, I can appreciate that.You know, it does make people maybe more into it.Maybe they should be less into it if it's being manipulated.Yeah, I know.Sometimes I miss the old days.Yeah, dude.Let's time travel.Yeah, exactly.And then let's, we'll, we'll go, we'll pick a time period.We'll go back to it, and we'll see how horrible it was.And then we'll buy a few cars.And then we'll buy a few cars.Then we'll buy a few cars.Yes.And Nvidia stock.Yeah.And then it'll, everything will be great.All right.Well, time traveling into the future, we'll do another one of these next month.Yes.I appreciate your, your car rabbit hole today.Thank you.Thank you, Collin.Well, thank you for the market updates, and, yeah, tune in next time.Yeah.Like, share, subscribe.Like, share, subscribe.Send in questions to- Or just comment.Or comment.I don't read the comments, though.I read the comments.Do you read the comments?I do.All right.Well, you can also email us at compoundgrowthpodcast- @gmail.com@gmail.com.Thanks for watching.The information in this material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.Investment advice offered through Integrated Partners doing business as CoFi Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor.Integrated Partners does not provide legal, tax, mortgage advice or services.Please consult your legal tax advisor regarding your specific situation.Past performance is no guarantee f- of future results.All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.No strategy assures success or protects against loss.The economic forecast set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that the strategies promoted will be successful.Compound Growth with Wheeler and Collin.Sponsored by CoFi Advisors.Reach out today.Yay.