Hyperscalers, Housing Bills, and the GLP-1 Moment

Colin came in from fishing. Wheeler was trying to buy Olivia Rodrigo tickets mid-recording. They still got through a packed week.

The Road to Housing Act passed with bipartisan support — a bill to cut red tape on home construction and limit corporate ownership of residential properties. Then the president refused to sign it, tying it to a separate voter ID bill. Wheeler and Colin get into why builders are financially incentivized to build expensive homes over affordable ones, and how badly the math has shifted. A starting advisor ten years ago earned $50K with homes around $400K. Today that same job pays $60K. Those same homes are $900K.

Portsmouth attorney and former congressional candidate Justin Nadeau was sentenced to seven and a half to fifteen years for stealing from a client who had suffered a traumatic brain injury. The takeaway: a designation doesn't make someone the right person for you — in law, finance, or healthcare.

Women face disproportionate risk if Social Security gets cut — not because the headline says so, but because the math backs it up. Women receive lower monthly benefits than men but collect longer due to longevity. The structural problem: women who step back from the workforce to raise children are financially penalized by a system built entirely around hours worked. About 14% of retired Americans rely on Social Security entirely. Roughly a quarter have it making up more than 75% of their retirement income.

The GLP-1 market is having a Big Short moment. Colin noticed the lineup at the American Diabetes Association conference in New Orleans and it reminded him of the Vegas conference scene — a year ago nobody cared, now every drug company is flooding in. Injectables, pills, and probably a powder coming soon. What makes GLP-1s interesting is that they appear to solve one problem — appetite satiation — that then cascades into improvements across addiction, heart health, and metabolic function.

A Nomura chart tracking combined free cash flow across five hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle — tells the story of the AI buildout better than most headlines. Free cash flow grew from $50 billion in 2012 to over $300 billion. It is now projected to hit zero by year-end. The debate it opens up: Chamath's "spend through zero now, earn it back later" versus Kai Wu's "asset-light was the whole thesis." Nvidia and Micron are being rewarded. Most hyperscalers aren't. Apple isn't in the chart at all — which might be exactly the right place to be.

They close on robotics. Elon's $20K household robot. Nvidia in the space. VC funding at record levels. Colin is skeptical — it feels like EVTOLs, early and overhyped. His mom just moved to assisted living and would never trust a robot nurse. Wheeler's counterpoint: nobody trusted driverless cars fifteen years ago either. The investor answer is probably what it always is: big companies acquire whoever wins, and you don't have to pick early to benefit.

Sources:
Why Women May Bear the Brunt If Social Security Gets Cut — USA Today
Portsmouth Lawyer Justin Nadeau Sentenced to Prison — Seacoastonline
GLP-1 Competition Heats Up: Oral Pills, New Entrants, and Price Compression — BioPharma Dive / Reuters / CNBC
Robotics Startups Are Having a Moment — VC Funding Hits Records — CryptoRank / RoboZaps
Housing Forecasts Revised Down Again — NAR / Realtor.com
Global Tech Selloff: Nasdaq Futures -3%, Chips Routed — CNBC / Reuters

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Credits:
Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell

Transcript

Amazon has had a free cash flow, quote-unquote, problem a few different times, right?They did not have a ton of free cash flow early on in their history.In this chart, starting in 2012, they had the smallest percentage of share in this free cash flow that we're looking at in this chart.They grew that up, and then they started to spend on building out SaaS,And building out their processing and storage.And then those margins improved, so you can see how those margins improved in 2024, 2025, and now they've started to decline because they're spending so much on the AI data center build-out, essentially, or just not even data centers, chips, everything that's related to running AI, right?So these hyperscalers have essentially accumulated or spent well over a decade accumulating all this free cash flow, and by the end of this year is projected to beWelcome to the Compound Growth podcast with Colin and Wheeler, where we talk all things growth.From financial growth, to career growth, personal development to societal progress, we explore how each layer builds on the next, compounding over time to shape who we become.Each week, we break down complex ideas and emerging trends into clear, actionable insights, because growth isn't just about numbers.It's about understanding the world and our place in it.So, as you know, I went fishing last night.Yes.And it was with a very, very close friend of mine and client.Love him.Former guest.Former guest as well.On the show, on the pod.Yeah, as well.And long story short, we had a fabulous time.We did not catch any fish-'cause the water was too cold.That's- The water's too cold, the fish don't.That's why they call it fishing and not catching, Colin.Yeah, I know.I knew that was coming.But I just wanna say this as a reminder to all of our listeners, that it is a beautiful summer.Get out and enjoy it.Next week is 4th of July weekend.Spend some time outside, off your phones, off the tech, because it was lovely.There's not many times where, like, you have a few hours to yourself and just, like, standing on the river.Mm.It's just very, very peaceful, with no phone calls, no nothing.While we are recording this, I am multitasking and hoping desperately to buy tickets to this Olivia Rodrigo Daisy Chain Fields Festival thing that's happening in Irvine, California in August.What is a daisy chain?You don't know what a daisy chain is?Like a- Okay.The reason they're calling this a Daisy Chain Fields is I think it's partly the location, and also it just, like, evokes femininity.It's a female-led festival, so it's all women.Right, yeah.All female artists.Right.So I think that's what they're going for there.Huh, interesting.I did not know what a daisy chain was.Well- Now I doshock of the century.Anyways, now- I am not a hippieI might be- Or, or a woman, but, um- Anyways, so- Not that I have anything against them.I'm just saying that's not- We love hippies around here.Anyways, I'm in the weight room, and at some point I might have the opportunity to buy these tickets.Um- A news alert.Yeah.Yeah?And that will mean that I've had the opportunity to buy tickets, but the good news is these tickets are cheaper than just seeing Olivia Rodrigo in Boston, like, at the TD Garden.So you're saving money by going to this?If I fly out there- Get a hoteland fly 3 other people with me and get a hotel, it will be less than those same 4 people going to the show in Boston,Is that true?That's 100% true.Oh, wow.I was being sarcastic- No, nobut you're being legitI'm telling you the truth.Wow.Cost-cutting.Yes.In this economy, it makes sense.In this economy- Yeahum- You gotta do what you canmeanwhile, I've been in here for 40 minutes, and I might get an opportunity to buy some tickets, so we'll see.I hope not to get interrupted.Anyway.Where do you wanna start today?In the meantime- News.News.We got some cool stuff today.Hey, let's go- Ishlet's go through it.Uh, I wanna start with the, it's, it's not I'm gonna start by throwing you a curve ball that has nothing to do with any of the prep.Great.Road to Housing Act.Are you familiar with the Road to Housing Act 1.0? Yes, I do.This is the new one that, yeah.Yes.So this was approved unanimously yesterday by everybody but Donald Trump.Okay.Good, good.Like, literally anybody who wants this.Yes.Basically, what this is trying to do is remove red tape from the housing or the building of houses, like, the process of building homes.And one of the reasons we have a housing crisis in this country, it's not just interest rates, and it's not just that homes are, have, are more expensive.Mm-hmm.It's just that there are more and more restrictions that hopefully this bill will lift, that will enable builders to build homes for people to buy because we don't have enough supply.There's too much demand, not enough supply.Not enough supply.And one of the issues, the home builders will only build houses that are, I guess, appealing to people who have more money, right?Mm-hmm.Because they have margins that aren't great margins, and they want toThey can't just build all the houses.They can only build a select few houses, so then they're building houses that have high-end aspects to them or they're just larger in size.So the ROI is higher.So, exactly.So what this is doing is basically trying to remove some of the red tape so that will encourage them to buildThere's also some components of it that are reducing or restricting how much you can have essentially larger corporate entity exposure to rental properties.Well, wasn't that the big bill that was passed last year with housing?Was it prevented, like, BlackRock from buying residential homes?That's, that, yeah, that's part of this.It's, like- Yeahconnected to this.And I, you know, it's funny to me.I, I, I just would tell you, I talked about this, like, 8 or 9 years ago.I was really worried about, like, BlackRock coming in.we're saying BlackRock.It's Blackstone.Sorry, Blackstone.Yeah, yeah, yeah.I was actually just reading a BlackRock article, so yeah.No, don't do it.It's, uhSo, and then I repeated you.Yeah.But anyways, it's Blackstone.I was worried about corporations coming in and taking up more and more homeownership because obviously that's a part of the American dream, right?Yep. plays into this situation that we're in right now.Yeah.It's actually become, you know, all these years later, less the size of the pie than I thought it would.Yeah.But it's still an issue.It is still an issue.I think when you look at the numbers and the amount of homes that Blackstone purchased, I think it was going back the last 4 years, it's not actually as big of a percentage of the housing market that I would have suspected either.I don't have the stats in front of me, but I remember reading about it a few months ago or whatever it was last year when the bill was passed.Yeah.And while it is a problem because they're buying up, like, large neighborhoods in concentrated areas where there is housing demand, like, it's not an actual game changer.But there are a lot of things that play into this housing issue.But I do think one of them too, I think it's important to basically build more homes, that way people can buy them.But there is still the problem of wage inflation and affordability too.So hopefully, if they build more homes, that will drive the price down a little bit.That's the goal.Yeah.That is the goal.And unfortunately, while this bill had bipartisan support, the president refused to sign it.So why?Well, he wants to make sure that, uhLet me actually read this whole thing here, what he wrote."Today's housing news conference and signing is hereby canceled until such time as we pass the desperately needed Save America Act, which I consider to be a national emergency," says the president.I don't know what the Save America Act is.That's voter ID.Okay.Right?So we won't approve a potential solution to the housing crisis until everybody shows voter ID and we, we tackle this mail-in voting problem.And I think this is where you get really frustrated because the w- the way government interferes with itself, like, om- we have all these large omnibus bills, right?Where it's like, "You give me this, I'll give you that," and you have, like, one goal, like maybe you wanna solve the housing crisis, and you pass a bill that then has, I don't know, 30 or 40 or 50 other bills tied into it, and it becomes an ominous bill.Right.Omnibus bill.And we can't just get to the pointThis is like w- when we sit in here in these chairs, we talk about, like, affordable health thing- healthcare- Mm-hmmaffordable housing, like, things to support people that we can all agree on.And then there's something else that some, some other agenda that somebody has that just gets in the way and something el- of something that everybody else ap- approves of, right?Mm-hmm.Yeah.So it's frustrating.Yeah, I mean, that is frustrating.It's like basically withholding progress in favor of whatever it might be.Regardless of whether you care about this particular Save America Act bill or whatever he wants to do, regardless of what political side you fall on of that- Yeah, he's holding it hostagehe's holding it hostage.Yeah.Right?And literally both parties are like, "No, don't do that, please."Yeah, I know.That is, uh, that is a little frustrating.I mean, we do have a housing crisis.I mean, it is a legit thing.I was just talking about this last night.And, I mean, it's really, really difficult in terms of affordability in this day and age.Yeah.Granted, I mean, we are in a very, very, I'll say, expensive area of the country.We are, yes.Yes.Yeah, totally.But I know it's also an issue everywhere else as well.Well, there's also, you know, it's kind of a, there's a lot of nimbyism as well, right?Mm-hmm.It's basically like, you know, every time we, my family, drives by some, like, land that had been recently cleared for a housing development, we're like, "The trees," you know?And then at the same time we're like, "But all the homeless people," or just, like, all the people who are renting because they can't afford to buy, and it's, there's no perfect solution for it except for, I guess, building up.No, I know.But the thing is, is that I worry about with the situation is someone who can't afford to buy is in a rental situation where they're also probably not capable of saving a bunch of money.Right.And it's like even if the houses become cheaperWhatever happened with that 50-year mortgage thing?I don't think we needUh, 50, what does that mean?Did you ever hear that?No.Yeah, it- Yeah, I mean, that was like a big thing- What a horrible idea thoughthey were, they were trying to get through.It is a terrible idea, but then it comes down to it and it's like if you're gonna get a 50-year mortgage, you're better off renting- Yeahin my opinion.But it's- Like, depending on the situation, but, like, you just look at this and it's like if you come out of college and you're making $65,000 a year- Yeahand you get a studio apartment, here around us is around 2,400 bucks a month, then you have your student loan payments, then you have a car payment most likely, then you have groceries, like, you're break even.And if you wanna contribute to a retirement account, there goes another 10% of your earnings.Yeah.Like, there's no money for you to put aside for a hou- you know?I agree with that, and I think that there'sWe've, we've had some stagnation in terms of just like- Totallywage growth.But at the same time, just to push back on, like, can you afford it, it's the price of the house that really makes it unaffordable.It's not the income.Because, like, when I bought my house 10, 11 years ago, it was worth half of what it is now.Yeah, totally.And I only could afford a 10% down payment, and I figured it out from there.And the fact that, like, if, if, you know, anybody, if, like, Tori were say, "Hey, I wanna go buy a house.I've got $40,000," that's laughable to get what I have now.Right.And that sucks.That's not fair, right?Totally.But, like, to that point, if I look at when I first started at our prior firm- I'm not laughing at $40,000, by the way.If Tori had $40,000 for a house, I'd be like, "That's good."If you have, if you have 40, that's, that's great.That's a good thing.That's great, Tori.But anyway, if I go back and look at when I first started as an advisor at our prior firm, you know, the starting pay at the time was c- right around $50,000- YeahI think is what it was for the advisor program.Then you can get commissions on top of it.But most of the time you're just trying to get to $50,000 because if you're below that, you're fired.Sure.You know, you have to hit your commissions to hit baseline pay.If you don't, you go on draw, and then you're done.Yeah.So I think my first year, like, I made right around $50,000 mark, like, as I was getting going as an advisor.But at the time, it was $400,000 for, like, a decent house in Dover.Mm-hmm.Yeah, exactly.At the time, you know?So now I look at the homes in Dover, and they're $900,000 for those sames homes that were 400.Yeah.And if I look up the starting pay for a new advisor at that same firm, it's 60,000 now.Mm-hmm.So it's like the fact that the homes have doubled in price- Rightmeans that the purchasing power for these people has gone down dramatically in regards to their compensation- Rightbecause it hasn'tI mean, over a 10-year period to only go up 20%- Yeahis ridiculous.Well, that's why we need more affordable housing.So that's why we need to have houses that are by definition more affordable- Rightwhich is what this bill is for, right?It doesn't necessar- Is it imper- perfect?Probably not.Like, it'sI bet there are some second or third derivative issues here that I haven't thought through all the way.Yeah.But that's not what the president's thinking about.He's thinking about his voting act.So the, the fact that you have a bipartisan bill that's trying to solve a problem when everybody's basically saying, "Hey, let's solve this problem," and then I see it go through and I'm like, "Great, we can talk about it on the podcast"- Rightthen 15 minutes later, no we can't.It's not a positive thing anymore to lead with, and then I'm still stubbornly talking about it but- What I actually worry about the most, not to cut you off- Mm-hmmbut what I actually worry about the most is what you said when you first started talking about this- Yeahwhich is with the builders.Yes.Because the ROI for builders to build a more expensive home is higher.You know, you can charge a higher price per square footage.It's usually cost plus 20 depending on the build or whatever it might be.Yeah.So they're getting a higher ROI for building a more expensive home.Why wouldn't they just build more, more expensive homes?Because what you'reSome of the restrictions and the red tape are basically how much you can fit into one specific area.Okay.So, like, if you can fit more housing into a smaller square footage or, or a map, right?Yeah.A zone on the map, then you don't need to build McMansions.And I think that you're probably seeing, IYou're seeing, uh, the appetite for the McMansions- Go downkind of dry out, right?Yeah.And if you think about how we solved homeownership in this country back in, like, the '50s following World War II, like, they just build out rows of small homes that put roofs over families' heads, and that was the starting point.And then we went up from there.Well, Sears had the home kits.Sure, yeah.Sears had the home kits.Yeah.Whatever it might be, um, I think that's what we need to kinda move forward to, and I don't care how we get there honestly.I mean, I say that now, and I, I would regret if it was done the wrong way, of course.But I think we need to start moving in that direction.Everybody seems to agree about that.Yeah.So I'm optimistic that next week or the week after that- This will go throughwe'll be able to talk about this, and this will be a little footnote or a speed bump in the way.I like it.Not so happy news.Yeah.I wanna talk about the Portsmouth lawyer.Share, share- Justin Nadeaushare about the Portsmouth lawyer.Okay.For those of you who don't know, this is local news, but still pretty crazy.Local to the seacoast of New Hampshire.US congressional candidate Justin Nadeau was just sentenced to seven and a half to 15 years in state prison for stealing money from a past client.Essentially, what this guy did, which I thought was pretty crazy, is there was a gentleman who was a client that suffered a traumatic brain injury- Mm-hmmfrom being struck by an intoxicated driver.And he was kind of siphoning money from this guy in terms of loans, and he kept taking loans from this guy, 275,000, whatever the amounts were, and he did multiple loans and basically took the money and used it for himself- Yeahand never paid the guy back.Would that be called embezzlement, or is that just stealing?I think that's just- Robbery Straight up robbery But, you do see this stuff happen quite often in every industry, and I'll say that there's a lot of people that take advantage of the systems, and we saw a similar thing happen.I don't know if you remember the Merrill Lynch case in Portsmouth back in the day.Yeah.But this stuff does happen, and the fact that this happened, you know, right here in our hometown was, was pretty nuts.Yeah.Yeah, I mean, I think it's just a good reminder toI mean, in this situation, you know, hopefully that there were some loved ones that could've been helping this guy- Yeahwho had the brain injury along the way, and so they would've seen this happening.But- YeahI think the communication aspect or the standards of communication are, should be held pretty high.Yeah.Right?And obviously there was nobody looking over his shoulder here.I think, to me, what, what this speaks to, and I'm just gonna go into our own industry and even healthcare in general, just because someone has a designation doesn't make them necessarily the right person for you.Yeah.And I think it's important to think through the recommendations you're being given, to really think through if they are in your best interest regardless of the profession because, you know, this isn't just like a specific to lawyers being this profession.This happens in everywhere, in every walk of life.So when you are in a position when you're dealing with someone in the service industry or whatever it might be, healthcare, et cetera, I think just think through if this is really in your best interest.Yeah.I mean, there are a lot of bad actors out there, unfortunately.Totally.Yeah.Yeah.Let's talk about this article that I agree with you is not very well-written, and it's the "Why Women May Bear the Brunt If Social Security Gets Cut."Yeah, so the premise of this article is basically saying, and correct me if I'm wrong here 'cause I read this last night, but that women receive lower Social Security benefits than men was kind of what this was alluding to.Yes.It did reference it that they, they receive less in general, but they also receive more as a percentage of the pay- the people who receive Social Security.So women are a larger percentage of the Social Security payout.Yeah.So what the article was suggesting is that w- if we see a reduced payout or Social Secur- Social Security finally hits a wall that it can't climb over and we see benefits cut, then that would disproportionately impact women because women have a disproportionate payout from Social Security.Right.Yeah.That's fair.What's your take on this, just out of curiosity?So I think what's interesting is the headline isn't very useful.No, it's not.Like, it's notTo me, like, yes, if Social Security benefits get cut, it's a bad thing is short, right?Mm-hmm.Is it, is it worse for women because women have a high- higher payout?The reason that they have a higher payout, and it's not higher, you know, higher than their male counterparts on a one-by-one basis, but they have a larger percentage of participation in Social Security because they live longer than their idiot husbands, essentially, is what happens there.That's, that's what I was going to say, yeah.Like, if, actually, if you look at the numbers, there's not much of a difference in terms of the total amount paid.There is a big difference in the monthly benefit, but because women live much longer on average than a man, the total span throughout the lifetime is actually quite similar.Yeah.Yeah.I think the, the concept is women will have more Social Security payout because they live longer- Mm-hmmbecause they take less chances.Like, there's a lot that goes into that payout.They actually go to the doctor's.They, they actually go to the doctor un- unlike their husbands who are just told to go to the doctor.But I, I think that the, actually, just to take this a step further, what's interesting about this is it continues to play into the fact that women have less independence in this country.So women are more dependent on the Social Security system, so if that goes away, it disproportionately impacts women, right?In terms of which gender it, it impacts, it's women are gonna be hurt more because of that.They have more reliance on the Social Security because they have less of their own money because they don't work as much, but also gives them a smaller payout of the Social Security compared to their male counterparts when both of them are living.Yeah.Right?Yeah.What this implies to me, and I think the root of all of this to me, was the fact that there is an income gap.Essentially like a gender income gap.Totally.Totally.And I think people will look at the raw numbers, and the headlines say there's a 15 to 20% gender gap in terms of pay.And I actuallyLike, if you really dig down into that and you really do a lot of research, that's actually not entirely true because they're com- they're not comparing apples to apples with that.There is still a pay gap, I'm not denying that.And if you look at it, like, you're just comparing raw numbers, like total, like, income from a man versus total income for all the women.Yeah.And women work in different industries, historically speaking, than men do, and there's differences in pay, and there's differences in education.But if you take someone who has gone to the same school, works the same hours, there is still a gap, but it's usually 2 to 10%.It's much lower than the 15 to 20%.But to your point, when it comes to Social Security, I think the difference here is it's all down to the number of hours worked, for the most part.Because the more hours you work, the more you're paying into the system.Yeah.So if you're working more hours, which historically speaking, men do work more hours than women, which is not good or bad, it just is what it is, then there's more going into the Social Security system.But to your point too, women do rely on it more than men because they're gonna live longer- Yeahand that's just the stats.I think theYou canI, I think you're speaking to clean facts.Mm-hmm.The fact is women work less or fewer hours- Yepthan men, holistically, universally speaking.I think what gets lost there is why.And if we haveIf women don't have as much access to earning the Social Security benefit, then they're gonna receive less of that, which is gonna lead to that gap that Social Security has.Right.I think part of the issue here is that women, by default, if they become moms, take 0 Spend more time at homethey take more time at home, and they are financially punished for it.Yes, they are.And that's the issue.I think when you look at an inability to pay into the system, so then therefore you can't benefit from the system, and you're doing that as, like, a, a family choice.There are, like, spousal benefits to Social Security, et cetera, but it's not as much as what you can make if you just continue on that workforce trajectory that you're on, right?So, like, if you're a working woman and you decide, "Well, I'm, I'm at this point where I wanna have kids," and you interfere, quote-unquote, "your, your trajectory, your journey, your career path," then that has long-term ramifications on your ability to make money.And I think the idea that some people play into is, like, well, they just take some time off, and they get right back into work, and it's just- But that's not the caseBecause- Yeahyou're also startingLike, if you look at a man that's continued to work for, let's just say you have 2 kids or whatever, and he gets an extra 6 years of work.Yeah.He's going to have advanced more in his career, most likely, and moved up the corporate ladder further.Right.So his earnings potential and power and time paid in is going to be more regardless of the woman, unless he was to retire way early and something was to change or something like that.I think the thing that I struggle with is the thought of, like, them being a mom, like they're punished by the system because to a certain extent, like, this is why spousal benefits exist with Social Security.You know?Like, there has to be some sort of compensation, and there has to be some sort of incentive for a woman being able to stay at home and still receive some sort of governmental support with that.And that's where I struggle the most, is it's like if you have the ability to be a stay-at-home mom, I think that that's a huge blessing because not many families are able to do that necessarily.But you're still- You know?dependent entirely on your spouse.You are, but the spouse is also entirely dependent on you to raise the children.Sure, but that- There's a codependencespouse could leave you after 18 years after you've raised that child, and then- Yeah, but in divorce, you're entitled to their Social Security benefits.Only ifYeah, right.Over that 18-year time span- Rightthat would, that would be true, but only part of the Social Security benefits.Correct.It's not the full amount.Right.But I guess the, the point is, is that the system's not perfect, and I'm not saying it is.But I find it hard, unless you had some sort of, like, pension like Italy as an example, that was just kind of like- Rightfixed for citizens.Yeah.Which I don't know if we'll ever move into that.But when it comes to, like, the Social Security stuff, it is an hours worked situation.And whether or not that's right or wrong, I don't know, but it just is what it is.Well, it is an hours worked situation, and it's not at the same time because there are plenty of people who work a lot of hours and stop paying into the system partway through that time, right?They max out how much they pay into the system.Yeah, because once you're over 187,000- Rightof income, then it's phased out at that point.Right.So if, if you pay inIt's not exactlyWe can't just explain it away as, say, well, it's hours based.It's not just like it's dollar for dollar or hour for hour or anything like that.So I think that's what's harder to define.You'reI'm not asI'm not familiar with the Italian pension system, but I think that's what people think of Social Security as.What Social Security, if we say it's based on, like, how much you work and you put in, that's an individual thing, whereas planning a family is not an individual thing, right?That's a joint decision- Rightthat then can have individual impact because you could- Or it might not even be a jointsituation Sure Like there are situations like if you're a single mom Right, exactly that You know?Like what if, what if you aren't entitled to your spouse'sWhat if you don't have a spouse?Right.Right?And you don't have that access.And what if you get a divorce 5 years into, you know, your life as a mom?Right.Right?There's, the system, there are probably solutions which I have not thought out Of course notwhere you could probably, you can get through this and not take a step back financially for choosing to stay home with your child.Yeah, I don't know.I am obviously not in that situation.It's tough.I was just looking at the numbers and 14% of retired Americans rely solely on Social Security to basically make ends meet, which is actually, um, a lower number than I had originally thought.But roughly- That, that seems smallyeah, but roughly a quarter of Americans, it makes up 75% of their total income in retirement.So it's obviously a huge deal.Regardless of whether or not the Social Security system works in general for women specifically, I don't know because I think it's on a case-by-case basis.You can make a blanket statement, but at the end of the day, there are a lot of situations where it might work out great, and there are a lot of situations where it might not work out well for you at all.I am pausing because I have access to the tickets.Hey.All right.Uh, theoretically.I haven't got in yet.This is the most confusing thing where I have to wait all that time to get access to get on the wait list.so no, I'm not feeling optimistic about this.That's okay.Um, quick pause.All right, I've submitted a request waiting to be approved.Who's gonna approve my request?Wait, that sounds sketchy.I know who it is.Claude?Trump.Yeah, Trump.He's waiting.He's like, "Eh."Well, I don't know.Did you- Show me your voter ID.Yeah, did you show your voter ID?That, that kinda sounds sketchy.It does kinda sound sketchy.Yeah, it does.Um, but yes, I have nothing else to say about that.Tori is concerned.I, I asked Gemini, and Gemini says that Front Gate Tickets is a reputable company- And we knowowned by Live Nationthat Gemini is always right.If I get, if I get ripped off mid-pod Yeah.That'd be crazy.We, we witness it live.Yeah.All right, so let's skip the science.Can we skip the science today?Let's skip it.Wait, hang on one second.Can- Is there something in science you wanted to hit?Can I just talk about one science thing?Yes.It's the GLP-1 competition thing.Okay, what do you wanna talk about with that?Okay, so there's a big conference, the American Diabetes Conference happening in New Orleans of all places- Okayuh, coming up here soon, which New Orleans in the summer is, that blows my mind.Um- Yeah, why would they have a conference in New Orleans in the summer?There's probably a lot of diabetic people in New Orleans.Do you remember when we went?Yes, it was 105 degrees.Was that July?It was July.Oh, God.Yes.Never doing that again.It was very hot.Um, anyway, the, the thing with this conference is there's a lot of people going to this conference that are touting these obesity drugs, and you wanna know what it reminds me of?Yes, I do.Okay.Big Short.Okay.When they go to Vegas?When they go to Vegas, and there's the conference, and like no one cared about mortgage-backed securities- Uh-huhlike a few years ago in the same way that no one really cared about dieting and obesity stuff like a few years ago.But now that these GLP-1s coming out, it's just talking about the lineup of people and sponsorships at this, at this convention.Yeah.And I haven't been, but I will bet it is very much like a Big Short situation.I'm not- Everybody's, everybody's just banking money.Everybody's just banking money.Yeah.Everybody's touting some- Yeahsort of drug.You have all these small companies coming out of the woodworks.You now have injectables.You have pill form.You have all these different things.I'm sure there's gonna be a powder form soon.Just wait, it's gonna be like sprinkled on- Oh, yeahin your morning protein shake.In your protein shake.Yeah, exactly.But I'm just saying it is crazy how quickly this has blown up to be this massive industry.Yeah.It's been like a year and a half.I think what's interesting is that you said that people didn't care about dieting and obesity.Sorry.I think what you meant was the GLP-1s.They didn't care about the drugs and specifically this industry as much- Rightin the market.Yeah.Yeah.But isn't it kinda like a GLP-1 drug market is likinglike lighting a match and throwing it into dynamite covered in kerosene?Like, everybody cares about this stuff, obesity- Yeahlike body image.Like it, it really matters, and I think what's interesting about GLP-1s is that they're talking about how it can solve these oth- all these other problems.Mm-hmm.Right?It solves diabetes, obviously.Mm-hmm.Right?It helps you lose weight, so it's gonna solve diabetes.It's gonna help so-solve heart problems, right?Mm-hmm.Hold on.I gotta answer Jess.Gosh.Hey.I'm, I'm gonna put you on speakerphone 'cause you're on the podcast.Oh, I'm so sorry.It's okay.I, I should- You got the tickets?I should have told you.I didn't get the ticke- Colin.Oh, you didn't get the tickets.Can you- I've submitted- What?a request for the tickets.Well, I'm in the process of doing it too.Well, don't do it 'cause I've already- You're getting 8 tickets?I've alreadyYeah, 'cause then we'll have 8 tickets.You could resell them.Well, did you already put in the- I don't think you can resellcredit card information?Uh, yeah.All that's done.Tori's making sure I'm not getting ripped off.Well, my email says I've, I've done these things correctly.As in, like you've got the tickets?No.So what happened was I selected the tickets and then gave them all my credit card information.He's in a waitlist for the tickets.And it put me on a waitlist to possibly receive the tickets.Yeah, that's what happened to me too.Well, don't finish that request because then we might both receive the tickets.But what if neither of us do?What do we do?Cross that bridge afterwe don't need 8 tickets.I don't know what to do at that point, so you sh- you should not finish that request.Why, how did that happen?I was in the waitlist before you.You know, it's myYou know what it is?Gender inequality.It's the patriarchy.Yep, obviously.Which is ironic.Ironically.It's female.Considering it's a female concert.Daisy chained.Anyways, GLP-1s.Yeah, I lost my train of thought.No, what I was saying is that they're a cure-all drug, but they cure everything by doing one thing, and that one thing has an impact on all the differentRight?Basically, like they satiate need, caloric need, but also that can help with addiction.So- Yeahlike, it's, it's just that they, they block- YeahI'm not, I'm not a scienc-scientist, obviously, but what they effectively do is they solve one problem, and that solves many problems, and that's really cool.It'll be interesting to see the side effects.Yeah.I'm, I don't think-I'll go to that conference.No, I don't think so either.But I'm not, I'm not eager to get these final 6 or 7 stubborn pounds off my hips.All right, I got a chart of the day, Colin.Okay.Um.Are you sl- are you sending it to me?I Slacked it to you.This comes courtesy of Dan, which is also a courtesy of Alex Carino on X.So, uh, this is coming from Nomura.This is a h- a chart from Nomura that is basically showing us the free cash flow, hyperscaler free cash flow projection.This is a confusing chart, so I'm gonna walk through it, and Tori will be able to share it with our viewers, but not our listeners.So this is looking back to 2012, so it's la- the last 14 years of free cash flow in the bi- measured in the billions of the companies that are considered to be the large hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta.Oracle gets, gets to g- join the party for a little bit.So that is measured against the growth of the S&P 500 index, the market, in the blue,And then that red line represents basically their combined total free cash flow.So essentially, going back to 2012, you had roughly 50 billion in free cash flow at these 5 companies.Basically, free cash that was not, uh, dedicated to a promise to any other business expenditure.It's something that they could then use on- Other thingsother things.Right.That crept up over the years to north of 300 1000000000,And it peaked at that number basically over 12, 13 years.Since AI and the AI build-out, that number has plummeted and is projected to be 0.Now, the question is, is this inherently a good thing or a bad thing, or do we have to wait to see?Because right now, obviously, you can look at Amazon.Amazon has had a free cash flow, quote-unquote, "problem" a few different times, right?They did not have a ton of free cash flow early on in their history.In this chart, starting in 2012, they had the smallest percentage of share in this free cash flow that we're looking at in this chart.They grew that up, and then they started to spend on building out SaaS, and building out their data centers, et cetera.Not their data centers, sorry, uh, processing and storage.And then they, those margins improved, so you can see how those margins improved in 2024, 2025, and now they've started to decline because they're spending so much on the AI data center build-out, essentially, or just not even data centers, chips, everything that's related to running AI, right?So these hyperscalers have essentially accumulated or spent, uh, well over a decade accumulating all this free cash flow, and by the end of this year is projected to beWell done on the whistle.Thank you.I have a problem with this chart.Sure.Okay.I don't feel like it's fair that Amazon's in it.Oh, okay.I didn't think it was fair Oracle's in it, but tell me about Amazon.Oracle's another interesting point.But, uh, these are tech companies, obviously, that we're looking at in general.However, one of the big advantages of technology, historically speaking, was it was a very low overhead, high ROI business.It's a very, very low cost of entry in regards to just this space in general in tech.I mean, Microsoft has been around forever, but you look at the cost of building out Google, Meta, like all these other things compared to companies that have to build out factories and produce products and ship overseas and things like that.Yeah.You know, it's like you build an online product, you build Google, whatever it might be And people use the product.It's very low overhead.My problem with Amazon in this chart is Amazon is not a low overhead business.You have drivers, you have shipping, you have warehouses, you have storage.Yeah.You have so many things that go into Amazon with actual physical goods.I don't think it's a particularly great comparison to compare it to something like Google or Meta.Now, I know it gets lumped in 'cause people always talk about the FANG stocks, you know, and it's, like, a huge company, obviously.Yeah.But they are doing a lot of AI build-out, and I think it's necessary for them.Yeah.Because if you think about how much AI can impact their own business in regards to, you know, I'm not an expert in Amazon whatsoever, but just think about, like, AI in terms of processing orders or figuring out shipments or logistics or whatever it might be in terms of driver routes.Like, there's probably a lot of opportunities for Amazon in the AI space, but I'm not sure it's the same business model as Google.That's fair.I think that the fact that you're, I think you're referring to the fact that they have a higher overhead because of the logistics business, right, in the Amazon marketplace, right?But I think outside of that, you have AWS, and AWS dwarfs that business that we all think of when we think Amazon, right?Yeah.So if you have Amazon's Web Services increasing their ca- that, the majority of this free cash flow increase that we're looking at on this chart came from AWS.It didn't come from us buying our, you know, our s- our seltzer waters at the office.When you say AWS is overhead- No, noor sorry, when you say AWS in general in terms of generating the free cash flow for Amazon though.That's correct.So talk me through that.So they, they provide web services to large corporations and small businesses- Just like Oraclebut like, yeah.So it, that's what creates their free cash flow for them.They, essentially they took a brick and mortarThey were never brick and mortar, right?They were the solution to brick and mortar.They were a bookstore.But- Yeahbut they have, like, all these very large warehouses, and they, and they have all these- Yeahtrucks now that they c- so they don't rely on UPS, et cetera.So they spent and spent and spent on building out the, that consumer side of the business, but it's really the B2B stuff that has generated the most revenue for Amazon, which is why they've been talking about whether this should be broken off or not.This is why Andy Jassy, who was in charge of AWS, is now in charge of the company because it was the biggest place of focus for them.But I think there's an important distinction that the percentage of revenue from AWS is only 18%, but the percentage of profit- Yeahis much higher.Yeah.I, I think that's a largeI don't know what that fact is quite right because it's a muchI don't have it in front of me.And we'll go with, we can go with that, or we can cut it later if it wasn't right, but- This is from, this is from Amazon earnings.Yeah.So long story short, I guess the point is, is, like, AWS has 57% profit, but it's 18%- It's, it's more profitable than the other side of their businessit's much more profitable than the other side of their business- Yeahversus everything else if you look at, like, retail ads, Amazon Prime Video, like, all that stuff.Well, that's the other thing is that, like, you say, and I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you.I think that this chart has a weird selection, but they're all considered the hyperscalers.So that's why they, they're in here.I, like, I don't think Oracle and Google are the same thing.Uh, but Google is an ad services business.Yep.Right?So, like, that is another arm of Amazon's business.It is.Yeah.I, I think it's just tough, to your point, it would be a more useful chart if you were to break out AWS- Yeahand the certain divisions- Yeahbecause it would show, like, where the spend is actually coming from.Yeah.Like, the retail side of Amazon being massive but only having a 40% profit margin versus a 60% profit margin on AWS- RightI think to me is, like, the problem because it's not an apples to apples comparison versus, like, Meta.Well, even Meta is, you know, Meta is Facebook.Right.Meta is Instagram.You know, Meta has ad sales too in both of those channels.So it's like, uh, I think that if you look at these, they're all kind of like little conglomerates, and they have a diversified business sense.Yeah.And to break out any one piece of it is kind of missing the point because overall, company itself is reporting the earnings.The company itself has the cash flow, right?It doesn't matter what the divisions are because, you know, we have moonshots at Google that's been just losing money forever.I mean, the point is, is that people are spending a dramatic amount of money on this build-out.And I think if you look at the reason why these companies have grown so much in momentum, it's because they had so much free cash flow.Yeah.Which is drying up, the profitability, and if you are spending all of your money, which is why investors came to you in the first place, it's tough to know whether or not this is a good move until we see a few years down the road whether or not that spend was worth it.So I think what we're looking at right now is essentially on one side you've got Chamath Palihapitiya saying, "Hey, this is what happens.You build out to get an edge so that you can create a margin on the other side."And going to 0 right now doesn't matter.Going to negative doesn't matter as long as that free cash flow and that profitability comes on the other side.Yeah.Whereas on the other side of, of that argument, you have Kai Wu, who's basically like, "Hey, asset light is why we all invest-" 100%"in these companies."Yeah, low overhead, asset light.Right.I think the solution is probably in the middle.If you have a choice right now, you're not an investor in these companies, and you can choose to just wait and see, right?Because they're not being rewarded for this.Nvidia is being rewarded for this.Micron's being rewarded for this.Microsoft is being punished- Yeah, it isas part of the build-out.Amazon, Google, they're kind of iffy.Meta's getting punished.Oracle isDepends on the day.Yeah.Um, so I think if you can just wait it out and see, it doesn'tYou don't have to be- Well, that's basically Apple's approach.Yeah.Well, and I, this is what Dan and I were talking about.Apple, not pictured.Yep.Right?If you pict- If you had Apple in here with their free cash flow, if you brought Nvidia- Yeahwith their free cash flow, it's just that they're focusing on these hyperscalers and not necessarily the most important companies.And that where the, the noise is just noise and maybe not so much signal.Yeah.Dan and I were talking about this the other day too.The fact that Apple isn't first makes me- Yeahfeel better about that company.Yeah, yeah, yeah.You know, because I would rather have someone be a little bit late but be strategically positioned to actually benefit from it.It's like a let's wait and see if this spend is actually worth it- Yeahversus being first to the party.I, I agree.Anything else to say on that one?Okay.That's good.Um, I know this is a funny pod that we're gonna have to edit, and we need to wrap up.I actually do wanna go back one more, to one more thing in the science side of things.Okay.And that's the robotic startups.Oh, okay.Because I think that what the futuristsThat's a real title.It is.That is a, that is a thing.What the futurists would say about the robotics build-out is essentially, like, that's the next wave, right?Mm-hmm.Everybody's focusing- Well, I think Elon Musk's big thing, big quote was, "Robots are gonna take over cars in the next, like, 10 years," or something like that.He- Yeahhe feels, and again, he's always- Aggressivehe does the opposite of underpromise, overdeliver.Overpromise, underdeliver.Overpromise, deliver maybe someday.Well, actually, it's funny on that because, like, now Teslas are fully self-driving.Sure.Yeah.And but the fact that he has been talking about it for, like, 10 years now- For so longno one has even noticed.Well, early being the same as being wrong, right?Like it's- Right, exactly.So Elon has talked about having every household in America have a robot, and- Yeplike they would have an affordable entry-level price, like $20,000 or something like that, and- Mm-hmmyou have your own butler.Yep.Um, and they've demoed the robots, which I'm pretty sure are just people in bushes controlling them with a remote control, but- Sorry to saywho knows?I've been watching dance competitions with these robots.It's really funny.But doesn't Nvidia have robots now too?Like, it's- I mean, allegedly everybody's coming out with a robot.This is the thing.I think that this is the new exciting push that is, like EVTOL cars, flying cars, is way, way, way early innings, but people are gonna get seriously overexcited about.Like, it'sI, I think we, we sometimes we see that noise, and we think signal, and we wanna be early to it.Mm-hmm.And I'm not sure that's the right approach.I've never seen it be the right approach, it, because there's oftentimes a better time to be there, right?It's a great way to scattershot your investment strategy and say, "Well, one of these robotics companies will be- Hugemaking dinner for me in the future."Yeah.Maybe.Maybe.But I, I think it's, I think it's coming.I think at some point we'll be sitting in these chairs in, in a different room hopefully and talking about robots everywhere.But I wonderMy mom recently went to assisted living.Assisted living is one of those places where people say, "Well, robots obviously."Like, we don't have enough skilled nursing care, so we're gonna get nurse robots.My mom will never have a robot helping her.Like, if, if you told her, "Don't worry, Mom, I got you covered.Here's Gene.Gene's gonna take care of you."Here's your new robot.Gene is a robot.My robot friend.Whenever you need him, he or she, they, they're always there.Uh, they never sleep.No, she's never gonna trust a robot.I think we, we talk about trusting AI.Trusting a physical manifestation of AI is a whole different category.Another program.Fair.However, would you trust a car to drive you around 15 years ago without a driver in a busy city?I'm just saying- 15 years ago, just to say this, I was much dumber so probablyWell, I might get older and be even dumber, but I guess my point is, is it seems foreign now, and in the same way- Yeahit was very foreign for there not to be an elevator operator- Totallyat some point in time too.Yeah.So- I agree that your mom might not be down for it, but if you had a robot- At some point-for 30 years and were 70 years old- Yeahyou might be down for it.When's that, w- like, at, at what point of the curve, like the bell curve- Does it become a mass adoption moment?Yeah, you know, like early adopters- YeahI don't, I don't even know when and who.I know where they are.It's gonna be who and where is Silicon Valley.Yeah, totally.Um, and the people there.But I, I think, like, we, we talk a lot about AI.We talked about this in the last podcast, like end users are not really into AI.AI is, is becoming a do not touch topic.Mm-hmm.I can't imagine- Robotswhat it will take for robots to becomeRobots are gonna have to make everybody rich in order for them to be loved.Totally, 100%.I mean, also, a $20,000 entry price makes it very difficult for even first adopters to kinda grab 'em.Yeah.Again, I know everybody bought a Cybertruck, which- No, no, but not everybody bought a Cybertruck.Well, what was it?The most pre-ordered car in history?Yeah.So, and then they were selling for 150,000 when they first came out.Now they're- The resale is immediately half of thatthe resale is, like, half of that.Yeah.So anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens with robots.I, uh- It's an exciting time.Yeah.I'm more excited about EVTOLs.Yeah, me too.And because they're happening too, like, but like, that's a real thing.I would rather fly myself to Logan Airport versus sitting in traffic.With a robot driver?Yeah.No.Autopilot.Well, it's the same thing.Like- Yeahyou know, it's, it doesn'tYou don't need to like a mannequin with arms in the driver's seat.Like, it's the same thing whether your car is the robot or whether it's, like, a humanoid.That's true, too.It's all coming.The future is- I guess the robots are already here.Waymos.Yeah.Well, they're just virtual robots.So what do you do if robots are gonna take over the world, Colin?How do you as an investor deal with that?They're gonna take your jobs.Well, wait a second, hang on.If they're taking over the world like a, like, Planet of the Apes style or, like, they're taking over the world- Then just take the-like they're taking jobsLike, they're killing everybody?No, no, no, no.Like it's a hostile takeover, I, Robot?I don't think they're gonna bother killing us.We're useless.Like, we're not really energy cells.Like, it's not quite- Not yetWhat I would do if I was to position myself is, I think, truth be told, big companies win.Mm-hmm.And I think these companies like Apple have so much free cash flow that if there was a company that was doing really, really well, it would probably just acquire them.I mean, it's funny- You know?that big companies don't necessarily, as we just talked about, have to have free cash flow.You know who definitely doesn't is SpaceX.Yeah, I know.And look at them.They're only the 7th biggest company again.Yeah, I know.Yeah, so.Yeah.Not a charity.Free cash flow doesn't necessarily relate to size.Yeah.It, it sounds like, to me, optimism is what leads to returns more than anything else.Hope.Hope.Hope is a strategy.Hope is a strategy.Don't,Hope is not a strategy, everybody.All right.Let's end it there.Yes.Like, subscribe, share with a friend.Thanks, everybody.Did you share with friends?I did.Over the last week?I did.How many people did you share with?You win.I only did one.I can do better.All right.We'll do better.Thanks, Colin.Thanks, everyone.The information in this material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.Investment advice offered through Integrated Partners doing business as Kofi Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor.Integrated Partners does not provide legal, tax, mortgage advice or services.Please consult your legal tax advisor regarding your specific situation.Past performance is no guarantee f- of future results.All investing involves risk, including loss of principle.No strategy assures success or protects against loss.The economic forecast set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that the strategies promoted will be successful.Compound Growth with Wheeler and Colin.Sponsored byCofi Advisors.Reach out today.Yay