Is Free Money Ever Really Free?

The personal savings rate sits at 2.6%, and Wheeler and Colin argue it tells you almost nothing. Someone making $100,000 who saves $10,000 is saving at 10%. Someone making $1,000,000 who saves the same $10,000 is saving at 1%. Both count exactly the same in that national number, which isn't weighted by income, doesn't separate working professionals from retirees on Social Security, and says nothing about your own household.

From there, a rabbit hole on GLP-1s and fertility. The US total fertility rate hit a record low of 1.6 in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain the population. Immigration is the only thing still growing the US population, and it's slowing too, with the country projected to peak sometime in the 2030s. That combination is the real risk sitting under Social Security: fewer people paying in, not just more people drawing out.

That leads into a wider debate about optimism versus scarcity, why some friends are opting out of having kids altogether, and whether taxing billionaires is as simple as it sounds. A history lesson on the 1990s luxury yacht tax (it mostly just moved shipbuilding jobs to Europe) sets up Jess's pitch for a "choose your own adventure" tax, where taxpayers could direct a slice of what they owe toward causes they actually believe in.

On the charts: 60% of tech stocks, including Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Palantir, and newly public SpaceX, are sitting in bear market territory even as the S&P and Dow grind higher. The S&P 500's forward PE ratio is 20.1, above the 10-year average of 19.1 but well off last October's peak near 23, a sign companies are growing into their valuations rather than getting more expensive.

Last up: Bilt Rewards now lets cardholders transfer points earned on rent payments directly to student loan servicers like Nelnet, Mohela, Sallie Mae, and Navient. Wheeler and Colin split hard on whether that's a genuine value-add for renters carrying debt or another hook aimed at a financially fragile group, and Tori weighs in from the actual seat this offer is built for.

Sources:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays report (personal savings rate)
CDC National Center for Health Statistics, provisional 2024 natality data (total fertility rate)
Social Security Administration Trustees Report (funding and demographic projections)
Market and valuation data via YCharts (tech sector bear market breadth, S&P 500 forward P/E)
Bilt Rewards program announcement (student loan servicer transfer partners)

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Credits:
Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell

Transcript

I think when it comes to arbitrage, if you're going to be spending money anyway on it, why wouldn't you get the free money?This is the way that you think about things.So this is the wayYou love the points.So this appeals to you.Well, I just like free money, you know?Like-the way that I look at it is I put roughly 40K a year on my credit card.Mm-hmm.And I got 28,000 of benefits back- Mm-hmmlast year from it.So to me, it's just stupid to not do it.Like, I just don't get it.Like, if someone's gonna literally hand you 1,500 bucks for freeIt's not free.It is free.There's no fee.Somebody else is paying for that.Are you serious?It's not coming from the company.But they're gonna be paying- It's coming from somebody who didn't get to pay their rent.So, so this is going back to the very, very beginning of our conversation when it comes to the savings thing, which you said at the beginning was basically you're taking from someone else, is basically what it is.ThatNo, but that's literally what this is.Not necessarily.Who do you think isWho do you think your credit card points are coming from, Colin?The fair, the fair point is that with this, regardless of whether or not I participate- Yeahpeople are gonna get themselves into debt, whether it's credit card, student loans, or personal loans- Yeahor with a bank.Yeah.Like, if you're gonna be irresponsible with it, then be irresponsible with it, but if you can be responsible with it, then you should do it.Welcome to The Compound Growth Podcast with Colin and Wheeler, where we talk all things growth.From financial growth to career growth, personal development to societal progress, we explore how each layer builds on the next, compounding over time to shape who we become.Each week, we break down complex ideas and emerging trends into clear, actionable insights, because growth isn't just about numbers.It's about understanding the world and our place in it.All right, what do you wanna start with?I have a bone to pick- Okaywith big, bad data.Okay.And here's- Big, bad datahere'sI'm gonna revisit what we were just talking about last week.Okay.So last week we were talking about the savings rate, the personal savings rate.Yes.We went down a crazy rabbit hole.Yes.And it was unnecessary rabbit hole.But it was- It was a learning experienceYeah.And it sparked a curiosity into me.Okay.And I was thinking about, like, why that data point bothers me so much.And y- do you remember exactly what it was?It was like the personal savings rate for the US right now is, like, 2point something.2.6%, if I recall.2.6%,And I was like, "What does that, what does that mean?"And then we figured out- And then we went through that whole thingit was the excess, yeah.Right.So what's interesting to me about that data point is let's, let's take somebody who makes $100,000.Okay.Easy math.And they save $10,000.Okay.So they are saving 10%.If you have, if you make a million dollars, and you save $10,000, you're saving 1%.Both people are saving $10,000.Right.So both people factor into that savings rate- Okaythe same way.It's not, it's not, like, cap weighted.It's not likeIt's, it's basically total income- Yeahbacking out, um, total s- savings basically,Total income, backing out total spend and taxes and what's left over.Right, is the savings, right.Yes.Right.But it's total national income.Yep.Right?It doesn't matter.And then it's just divided across the people, like all people who have income.So I think I s- get what you're puttingLike, I'm picking up what you're putting down, because the problem is, is people who make millions of dollars won't have the same- Saving percentagesaving percentage- Rightand it doesn't matter necessarily because what you wanna look at is the populace-as a whole.What you don't wanna look at is somebody who savesYou know, you can make $10 million and save $100,000 and have a shitty sening, savings percentage.Well, I guess where this gets really askewed is when you get to the very top, because if you haveLike, I'm just looking at the people that we know that have, like, kinda Uber money.Yeah.If you've got hundreds of millions of dollars, you're not spending that much in taxes- Rightmost likely- Yeahbecause you're just gonna leave it reinvested and not sell anything for gains.Yeah.You're not gonna have much expenses, but your savings rate is completely wrong because your sh- stuff's just accumulating anyway.It's inapplicable.Right.And then you have on the other side of the spectrum, Social Security-pension, disability.Yeah.Those all factor into the income.Interest and dividends too.Yeah.Yeah.So, like, who on Social Secu- what should their savings rate be if you're on Social Security?Well, I don't know.Should, should it be a high savings rate?That's, that'sI, I don't know.That'sI don't know.It didn't necessarily say anything in the research that we saw that it was based on age.So my takeaway from this whole thingAnd it, it, it was, like, if you are on disability, and you have a savings rate of, like, 3%, congratulations.Right.That's great.I'm glad that you're able to save some money.IYou know, it'sWhen we sit here for this podcast, and we look at, like, a big, noisy, bad data point like that, the, the reason that that's out there for, like, populace digestion as a headline, I think, is to scare people.Hmm.It's not to help anybody.Who are we helping when we share that?Probably no one.So then my question becomes is what's a better number to look at?There are other numbers to look at, but I'm not sure we should.Yeah.I think when it comes to thingsLike, we talk about this all the time.Somebody comes in, they say, "Am I saving enough compared to other people?"AndOr, like, you know, "How does my savings stack up to blah, blah, blah?"You know, "What are the rules about how much to save into your 401 , blah, blah, blah?"I justIt's all so generic and not personalized, and finance, as we talk about all the time, is highly personal.So I don't think we should talk about big data points like this In regards to savings and that kind of stuff.Yeah.Most of the time, not most of the time, a lot of the times it is a competition with clients.Yeah.I don't know if you ever get asked this, but how is my portfolio doing compared to your other clients?Oh, yeah.Sure.I get asked that a lot.Yeah.It's always the same people.Yeah.Um- Well, you're in the same model, so.Yeah.Well, I'm like, "It's doing the same as everybody else that's in this model."So I don't know what to tell you.Yeah.Um, I think for me probably the better number to look at would be, like, if I was to refine it, the number that I would actually care about is savings rates for people, like, ages 28 to 58 who are actively working and employed, not on disability.Yeah.And I would want to know what they're actually saving as a percentage of income to retirement accounts.Yeah.To re- Well, yeah.But you're n- you're never gonna get that data perfect.It's also, does itWhat is it?Like, I don'tPersonally, I didn't save as much into retirement accounts when I was 28 years old 'cause I was saving up for a house.Right.You know?Like, it's, you have prioritizations, you have your own goals that you're trying to meet.I don't, I do not give a shit what the savings rate is.I- I can't care less about it.I, I care because I feel like it does impact future systems, like Social Security- Well-if people aren't savingthat's interesting, and that is something I wanna talk about today.Um- Okaybut I think that Social Security is a little bit different from, like, the savings rate, 'cause that's forced savings essentially that everybody has to do.Yeah.Right?But I'm not saying Social Security benefits, but I guess my point is, with this, is if people aren't saving, then that could be a 2point problem, which is either there's a problem with cost of living- Mm-hmmor there is going to be an over-reliance on Social Security and government support in the future.But I don't think that, um, you can look at the savings rate and say, "Ah, there must be a problem with cost of li-" Like, we don't need this.We already see the cost of living problems, you know?Right.But that's the point.Like, I feel like that's an indicator.I don't think it's an indicator.I think it's just a noisy mess.It doesn'tIf you get equity compensation, doesn't always count towards that either.Like, it's, it's just a no- it's a bad assessment.Fair.I doEquity compensation is a bad take on that, but I think there's probably fairly limited people that receive equity compensation.It's, it's increased in a form of compensation- It has, it has- Like, significantlyit has increased significantly, but I bet it's less than 25%.Sure.But that'sI think if we're, if we're just looking at this and saying, "Well, I guess a lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck," news alert, news alert.Sure, of course.Of course we know that.Right?Like, what are we, what are we learning?Why are we putting this da- not we, but why is, like, this data getting put out there?It's because- Well, it's because of fearit has to be on a regular basis.I just, I think it's just really important to, especially, like, we speak so holistically in this country about, like, national rates as if it's the same in Montana or Missouri or California or Vermont.They're all so, so different from each other.That's true.I mean, if you look at the top 1% of earnings as a blanket statement, it's totally different than if you look at it on a state-by-state basis.Totally.Actually, New Hampshire, the top 1% is, like, very, very high.Yeah.It'sYeah.I mean, I don't have those numbers in front of me, so to speak to.Yeah.I re- I looked it up months ago, but yeah.But I do, yeah.I do always think, like, well, what does it mean?Like, if you're a one percenter- Rightright?If you're a one percenter living in Vermont- Alabamaor Alabama- Rightit's very different than living in New York City.Uh, totally.Yeah.Yeah, it's absolutely astronomical.So it's like a lifestyle.So anyways, that, that's, that's kind of where I wanted to start today.I think when, in general, we wanna have a really good point- Mm-hmmto whatever it is we're talking about.And I was listening back to last week's episode, and I was like, wait, what is the point?What are we- Yeah.Where we just get into a-trying to achieve?huge tangent on something.Um, do you wanna talk about the, the Social Security thing?Yeah.I have a deep rabbit hole.Do you wanna go, like, thin?Kick me off on the rabbit hole because this isn't something that I went down personally, but- Okayy- I know you did.Okay.So this came from one of the prep articles about GLP-1s.Yeah.Did you read that article?I did.And that GLP-1 article was talking about how there are potentially some benefits to the fertility rate.There- I guess there was, uh, initially concern that GLP-1s might cause inveter- infertility.Yeah.And now it looks like perhaps it will help with fertility.Um, and the reason I think that this is interesting from a financial standpoint is actually kind of what you were talking about, like, the f- this ecosystem, this fragile ecosystem, and how it all kinda fits together.All right, so some facts.So I sent you this, like, fertility document that, uh, in Slack, so you can open that.Yeah.Um, all right.So the first thing to know about, and again, we're gonna speak national rates, but you can always dive into different areas, and I did.Uh, but the, there's a re- what's called the replacement rate.Do you know what the replacement rate is?No.So when you think about population growth, there's a replacement rate.It's 2.1%.So basically, if I'm to guess on that, that would mean that for every person that passes away, they're getting replaced?No.It's the, it's the requirement of how many people need to be born- Hmmin order to continue to grow the population- Okayis the way to think about it.So is the percentage the percentage rate that the population of is increasing?It's a replacement rate, so y- it's basically you need to have every, every family- Yeahwould need to have 2 kids- I see, okayis the way to think about that.Okay.And right now, the to- and that's the replacement rate is the 2.1. It's the same kind of measurement as what we call the fertility rate.Yes.So if the fertility rate is below 2.1, then we are not keeping up with the necessary rate in order to grow the population- Grow the populationor sustain, actually, population.Yeah.Right?The reason this isn't an issue yet is because grandparents and their generation are, like your grandparents, my grandparents, whatever- Righta lot of them are still around.Or not my grandparents, but my daughter's grandparents.My, I have one grandparent still around.You're still, you're still kicking.Yeah.Um, the total fertility rate hit a record low in 2024, and these are measured year over year, but 1.6 was the fertility rate in 2024.So we're seeing this.This is something that's been coming down systematically for decades, and you and I talk about this a lot, like- We dogrowing a family.Like, how do we- Yeahhow many kids are we gonna have, blah, blah, blah.You know, I had one kid.I'm below replacement rate.Right, you are.Technically, yes.I'm not helping.You need, you need 2.1 kids.Elon Musk is single-handedly trying to bring everyone up.Everybody back up.Yeah.Right?Um- I have a few friends that are trying to do that.Yeah.And so this is basically, the, the way they calculate this is they look at all the births,Um, and then they calculate fertility rate, and then they look at, um, population growth as a end result of all this.Right?So the re- the way that population increases in the United States is through replacement, right, babies being born- Mm-hmmand immigration.Yes.The re- the first part of that is falling off.Right.We're not producing enough people in this country.Right.And actually globally, it's, it's down.But- I was gonna say, it's not just the US.Yeah.It's globally down, but that's because, like, other areas have things like birth control now that they didn't use to have.Right.Um, and they also have more economic prosperity.Economic prosperity tends to lead to a lower birth rate, in- interestingly enough.Interesting.Because in the, historically, in the United States and not too long ago in third World countries, children being born provided more resources for the family.Right.And so they would, they would just have all these kids- Rightbecause they weren't working full-time jobs or whatever, and so anyways, now that you, what, when you have more prosperity or more, um, ability to prosper, you tend to have fewer kids.Do you think that's also because there's more women working?It's part of it, yes.Okay.That's 100% part of it.And actually, um, I listened to a podcast about this, uh, a few months ago actually, and they were talking about the impact of the US cultural perception that is now spread digitally across the world.Yeah.And essentially what we have shown is women can work too, and then other s- cultures and societies where that's not normally the case say, "Hey, I'm, I'm a woman, and I wanna have my own, you know, career- Situation, yeahand my own control," and so on and so forth, and that's led to a smaller population growth there.Sure.So anyways, so we have a, a, a reducing fertility rate.Um, and we are reducing immigration.True.Okay.So we are projected to peak as a population in the United States in the 2030s.Okay.The only increase from now until then is actually through immigration- Rightbecause we are not at replacement rate, right?Okay.So why- But what if those countriesThink about just US.We're focusing on US.Okay, focus on US.Focus on the US.Yeah, yeah.Because this is where, you know, this is our lives, and these are our clients, and so just focus on the US.We are only growing our population through immigration.Right?Because the fertility rate- Is downwe're having babies, but it's not enough to replace people who are dying.By the 2030s, we're expected to peak because immigration is dropping.Yeah.This is where your Social Security thing comes into play.So before I read on here, my guess would be that there's less pressure on Social Security.It's actually the opposite.Because the younger generation are paying for the older.Yes.It's, it's not that there's less pressure on Social Security.There's, there's more because there's nobody to work.No one paying in.So if we don't have new replacement babies, and we don't have immigration, we have nobody to pay into the system.Right.And that's where the real risk with Social Security- With Social Security beginsso and then you have to figure out, well, like, well, how else do we fund the system?Is it going to be something that comes through, let's call it universal basic income?Trump accounts.No, but accounts do not count as a universal basic income.That's $1,000 to a child.That's not the same thing.True, but I guess the point is, is trying to get people to save into them.Right.Sure.Yeah.Yeah.But itSo then it's again, it's a self-fulfilling thing.Hey, if you want a future, you have to save for it.You have to save into it.Right.Um, it could be potentially that we have some sort of national wealth fund, right?Mm-hmm.Or it could be, um, I've heard Brad Gerstner talk about corporations giving a percentage of ownership or equity, not as a payout to a national fund run by the government, but literally to individual people.Well, they're also now some companies are also funding Trump accounts for families as well.Sure.So yeah.Yeah.Yeah.But again, that's a very small segment of the population- Of course.Yeah, yeah, yeahand that will not come back into the system for decades.So, like- Nowaiting 20 years for that money to get back into the ecosystem isn't really a great strategy.So we have the people who are older than one years old to worry about right now, and I said years, one year old.Um- I was gonna say though, we are talking about Social Security many years down the line, and- That's only 10 years from now.What, what is only 10 years from now?The 2030s is when population- No, no, no.No, no, noBut- I, I totally, I totally get it.But-it's gonna be a problem for a long time to come.Well, perhaps, but what we're looking at right now is with GLP-1s, is this potentially a solution to that fertility rate?Because 15% of women trying to conceive in this country- Cannot conceivecannot conceive, and that's, I think it's, um, they have to try for like a year or whatever to be like- Rightdesignated infertile or something like that.Yeah.Um, but it's interesting to me that we're looking atI, I think about all of this as like just a fragile ecosystem, and we're si- we're constantly disrupting it in some way, one way or another, and we're like, you know, we create economic prosperity, so then we have fewer babies, and then we don't have a solution for that economic prosperity to fix the Social Security system, and then like it's all, it's all so interconnected that we have to find solutions for it to work in the future.That's true.What I will say though is about my own friend group is there are, I know a few of our friends that are trying for babies right now, and then one's pregnant, and then I know a good chunk of them don't want kids.Right.You know?Yeah.And that's the other thing with this is GLP-1s may help fertility, and that's all well and good.I think that doesn't solve the fact that there are more people that don't want kids.You're right, and that's anYou have to ask why- Yeahdon't people want kids?You know, and it's, I think that there's that, I always say, I can't, I, I can't ever remember if it's nihilism or nihilism.I always say this like, and I'm like, "What is it?Should it be?"Um, but this nihilistic idea that the future is w- going to be worse than the present.Right.And if that's the case, there are people who feel like, "Why bother having kids?We're destroying the environment.Things are just gonna get worse and worse and worse."Yeah.Kaylee's, uh- That comes into playKaylee's, uh, brother and sister-in-law feel that exact way.Yeah.They're like, "We're not having kids because the world's a terrible place."Right."And it's gonna get worse."And I'm like, man, that's a really terrible outlook on life.It's a sucky way to look at things.Um- It is a sucky way, and I'm like, you know, I justIf that's your opinion, by all means, you're entitled to an opinion.That's what makes this country great.But, um, I, I don't know.I think that's just a sad way to be, personally.But if, if that is how you feel, then you're not gonna want kids.Yeah.And, and you have to kinda, I think, change the outlook.I, I think that the focus should be on abundance.Mm-hmm.And it's frequently on scarcity.There's not enough to go around.He is taking from her.She is taking from him.Right.Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.And if we can focus more on abundance, then we can look for ways to, again, make optimism a strategy because that ha- that's the only way out.Otherwise, if it's doomerism, if it's all going to hell, if it's blah, blah, blah, then it will.It's self, self-fulfilling.It's self-fulfilling.I know.Well, I think there have to be more optimists than pessimists, or else capitalism just wouldn't work in general.Sure.Like, you wouldn't invest in something like the stock market if you were convinced the world was gonna blow up and be unsuccessful- YeahI'll just say, which, as we just discussed on the last podcast, the stock market is basically propping up, like, a lot of the luxuries that we've become accustomed to.And not only that, but it's propped up pretty much our whole future is now that pensions aren't really a thing, given that 401 s are so massive in this day and age.Yeah.Capitalism, I think, is working for some people.And I, I don't think it would be very hard, honestly, to make capitalism work for everybody.Yeah.And if you can get people behind that idea to believe that capitalism can solve the problems instead of create the problems, I think that's, that's the type of, of thought process and direction.Actually, I have an i- like question.Okay.Then I have a thought too.Do you have, do you have a response to what I was just saying?I have a response, which this goes back to our conversation with Jess.I was about to bring up Jess, but- Okaygo ahead.Yeah.I was just gonna say how, you know, when, I think when she was on, she said that you s- you said in a prior podcast that she was, like, maybe anti-capitalism or something like that, then she came in and corrected you.Yes.And she was just like- Thanks for bringing up the correction Sorry.But she said what I feel, uh, like, to my core, which is capitalism is a good thing as long as there's, like, guardrails to it.Yeah.You know what I mean?Like, there have to be boundaries where capitalism has to be constrained to the fact where you're not seeking out profits at the detriment of society.Yeah.I mean, what if you were seeking out profits for the good of society?Exactly.Which would be great.Um- Wh- what was your- Well, so Jess and I were driving down to the Noah Kon show last night.I'm just gonna keep talking about the Noah Kon show- Just keep going, yeahwhenever I can.Um- This is a Noah Kon podcast.This, this is a fan, fanboy podcast now.Uh, we're gonna get you on board, Colin.Yeah.So we were driving down and we were talk- talking about things like, um, you know, the, the economic issues in our country- Okay.performing as we do.Um- Your car conversations are very different than mine.Are they?Yeah.Yes.So we were talking about, um, you know, the differentThere's, there's a, a tang- or not a tangent, but there's a certain faction of people who feel like billionaires shouldn't exist, right?Mm-hmm.And there's a lot of people who say, "Well, we gotta tax the billionaires."And then they never really explain what that actually means- Rightand how to do it.And I feel like they have a overall, a lacking of understanding of how that won't solve the problem.Like, it, th- this idea that you can just gonna take a net worth snapshot of every billionaire and then, like, tax them 6%.Right.Um, and then they're not going to find a way around that.Of course.Of course they are.Yeah.They, they have all the resources that you hate and, not you, but like- No, I knowthe people that are un- that are ha- unhappy with the billionaires.So yeah, they'll have their various trust designs.They'll have offshore accounts.They might just leave the country.I was gonna say, they'll just leave.You know?What, they can go to Ireland, America Junior over there.My favorite example of this was the luxury tax.I think it was, was it Bush Senior?Maybe it was Clinton.I can't remember.But the luxury tax that was put on the mega yacht buyers.Mm.I don't know if you remember.I'm not familiar with this.But I think it was the '90s.I can't remember.But, um, there was a luxury tax that was put on the luxury yacht market, um, where basically people were buying luxury yachts, and for those major purchases, they would get taxed a good chunk on that purchase- Mm-hmmbecause it was a luxury, like, very highly appreciated- Yeah.Yeah, yeahexpensive good.Yep.So what happened was everybody got fired, all the US workers, and they moved the companies over to, you know, Dutch.Panama, whatever.Yeah.They were there.They became, like, Dutch shipbuilders.Yeah.So then they just bought all the yachts over there in shell companies, and who did it affect?Who did you help?Right.Right?No one.And I think this idea of a net worth snapshot and just taxation on that isn't, isn't the actual solution.If you, if you wanted to, you know, fix the tax code and, and get more money, extract more wealth or, or assets from the billionaires, then you would have to remove all the trust laws, and you would have to simplify the tax code and remove all the loopholes, and that's the process.I actually think a better way to go about doing things would to, to remind people that altruism is not a disease- Mm-hmmand that, uh, taxes, taxes are not inherently evil.What if, and this is Jessica's idea, there was essentially a choose your own adventure tax?Okay?Okay.So you're Colin Walker, and you're worth a billion dollars.Sounds great.And you made $100 million last year, and you have to pay 1% tax on- Okay, so a million buckson your income.That's correct.You get to choose.Here are the, are the 6 or 7 causes that you can support.Would you like to support food insecurity or food scarcity or the, uh, the homeless population or, uh, education or whatever it is?Check your box, dollars get allocated specifically to that thing.You've said in the past- Mm-hmmI don't mind paying taxes if they go to something I believe in.Totally.What if there was an option for you to fund it?When people give charitable donations to schools, for example- Yeahthey'll say, "Hey, I want to support this fund."Yeah.They don't just say, "Put it in the coffers and let the school figure it out."Right.Well, that was a, a local high school here just built a chapel, and you could donate specifically- Rightto the chapel- Rightconstruction.Uh, that's always been my big problem with taxes in general.It's not actually being taxed.I'm all for being taxed because I think we do need healthcare, we do need- Righteducation.Right.We do need, uh, social programs to help people on things like disability or retirement with Social Security, whatever it might be.My problem has always been with taxes, that I don't know the stat, no one knows the stat, but y- you don't know where your tax money is going- Rightand how much of it just goes to overhead and bloat in the actual government.Yeah.That's my problem with it, and there's just been a lot of cases where, come to find out, you know, the government and social programs, and even charities in a lot of cases, are blowing a ton of money on things- Yeahthat are just totally superfluous- Yeahand aren't actually benefiting anyone.I think it's interesting because, um, there's, there is no solu- like, Jessica has a great idea- Mm-hmmum, I think, personally, and, you know, it would be easy to perhaps say, for somebody to say, "Hey, that's a great idea," um, but then, like, how do you implement it, et cetera?Like- Yeahbut it starts with an idea.You know, you- you brought the Trump accounts.Brad Gerstner came, or he, he championed that idea for years- Yeahbefore it came to fruition.Fruition, yeah.Right?Um, there's, we talk about the, in this country a lot, we talk about, like, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution and these, like, documents that we hold very dearly, right?Mm-hmm.But when we declared independence, we basically said we had the right to pursue happiness.Right.Right?But hap- pursuit and, and happiness are 2 different words back then than they are to us now, and I think people have taken that concept and taken that idea and said, "I, I have the right to be happy," which is not what it says.It's not an unassailable right to be happy.Yes, to pursue happiness.To pursue happiness.Yeah.But, like, there's hedonistic happiness, and then there's, that's where, like, for yourself.And then there's, like, happiness that comes from helping people around you.Yeah.And I think when you lose sight of that, like I think we have to a degree in this country, it's losing sight with the point that they were trying to make 250 years ago.And perhaps there's a way to get people excited about paying a tax because they could see where the money went and feel good about it.But I think that's also the same argument could be made potentially with the stock market and index fund, index funds in general.Sure.Like, I think one of the exciting things about investing is you actually get to choose where your money goes.Yeah.Which I find to be exciting.It's just like when we do custom indexes for people for tax loss harvesting, and you can set your parameters on there saying, like, "I wanna prioritize, you know, Catholic intentions," or, "I don't want there to be any firearm" kind of stuff.Mm-hmm.Or, "I don't want this to go to Big Pharma," or, you know, "I wanna prioritize, like, tech or X, Y, and Z."The way that I look at the stock market is almost the way, to Jess's point, the way taxes should work in a way where the money that you put in could be allocated to the, I'll say causes- Causesand things you want.Yeah.You know?And that, to me, is what always has excited me about investing.It's like I've always thought solar and green energy is the future.Mm-hmm.You know, like, we're building a house, like, I love the idea of getting solar.Yeah.So for me, like, taking my own money to try to influence success within that sector of the economy is a really cool thing, and in the same way that if you really wanna prioritize, like, education in your taxes and you want a better, or you want a better healthcare system, like, maybe you can divert your taxes there.Right.And it would be, like, I feel like it has to be an ad- it has to be an additional tax, 'cause we have a deficit in this country.We do.We have some mandatory things that need to be funded, et cetera, so it would, it would beYou know.But I think the, "Taxes are bad," is our motto.Like, it's like- Yeahour, the country's motto, we don't wanna pay taxes.Mm-hmm.But we don't, why don't we wanna pay taxes is a really important thing to unpack.I think it's just 'cause we feel like we're being, our money's just being taken from us.I don't think anybody has any trust or faith that our taxes are actually going towards anything that's going to benefit people, because I thinkanybody has any trust or faith that our taxes are actually going towards anything that's going to benefit people, because I think, well, I don't think, I know in general people aren't really happy with the way that things are going right now- Rightin the country.That's a general consensus.Yeah.So, you know, our healthcare system sucks for developed countries.Our public education system, depending on where you're at, isn't necessarily the best when you look at other countries either.Yeah.You know, our roads aren't particularly great.Like, there's a lot of things going on right now, and, um- But our supermarkets, Colin, are so, so fantastic.Our supermarkets are stacked.Um- Anyway.Do you wanna do some charts, or where do you wanna go next?Yeah, let's do charts.Start with the, the 60% of tech stocks.So, here we are in July, and AI is more or less driving this market, right?That's, like, the lifeblood of the stock market.Mm-hmm.And yet, over half, 59, as of today maybe 60%, of tech stocks are in a bear market, a bear market being defined by a 20% drawdown or more.Yeah.So that's probably just, you know, shifting value from one area of the market and rotating it into another, right?So the S&P is up, right?Yeah.The Dow is up.The Nasdaq is still kind of up, um, but they aren't the names that we get excited about, perhaps.So, like, what tech stocks?Like, what does that mean when we say 60% of tech stocks are in bear markets?That's what the other chart is.So if you look at the large tech bear market chart-you can see Microsoft, Broadcom, Salesforce, Meta, Oracle, Palantir, and guess what?SpaceX.And Tesla.And Tesla's not- Yeah, which I know isn't here, but- Tesla's down-Tesla's down 10%10Yeah, but it's not 20%.Tesla's not- No, no, no.Tesla's not in a bear market.Yeah.But SpaceX is.SpaceX is.And that happened real quick.It's just- That's not, I don't think anyone should be surprised by that given that it's IPO, but- I mean, anybody who listened to us shouldn't be surprised by it.But- Sureum, I think it's interesting that you can have all these very large tech names beThis is w- what, you know, this is when you're reminded that a stock market is a market of stocks, and we have clients that are invested in Palantir, for example, or Microsoft or whatever, and they've made a lot of money in those names over the years, and they're not selling them because they're, they are, you know, invested for the long term.Yeah.But they're f- not doing as well as the S&P 500 this year because- Yeahthese, these mark, these stocks, these, their investments are in a bear market.So my question is, is should you make a change?I mean, I think that depends on your strategy.Right?Um, if you believe in those companies for the long run, no, but I think it's a reminder that just like when we talk about the savings rate and whether it's applicable to you or not, when, in our, in our world, we look at benchmarks and we kind of, like, try to, you know, get the benchmark return, so we measure against something.Yeah.Right?But did Warren Buffett have a benchmark?That's, that'sYou know, it's funny you bring that up because that's exactly where I was going out of this, like the headline data and stuff and what to think about.Yeah.I think it's important to have benchmarks, but to me, like, a benchmark should be something over, like, a long period of time.Mm-hmm.You know?And while it's down- Not 6 months.NotAnd while it's down the last 6 months, I don't think that matters.Yeah.You know, because I don't know, well, maybe I'm wrong, but not many people are trading across a 6month period of time, hopefully, you know?No, it's a weird intermediate.Like, people are either, like, in, trading- Yeahlike short term.Like a month.Yeah.At most.At the most, or they're investing for the long run.For the long term.Yeah.So the way that I look at it is, um, I know one advisor when I was first getting going used to say, "Oh, when you get your statement, look at it once a year and throw it in your top drawer."Right.You know?Yeah.And worry about it in 30 years from now.Yeah.And, uh, while I think maybe you should have a, a more involved outlook than that- YeahI will say that the month-to-month stuff is probably not something that clients should concern themselves with.Mm-hmm.But when I look at the indexes, I think the news in general, just like what we were saying before in the savings rate- Yeahkind of like scares you with a lot of the stuff about being, like, tech selling off, AI spend, like all this kind of other stuff.Yeah.you know, most of the time if you're holding out for the long term, this shouldn't freak you out.Yeah.I have a friend who, um, in his younger days, he was a fraternity brother.Mm-hmm.And, uh, he used to talk about, you know, they'd go out and they'd get drunk, and then somebody would drive them home, and they'd fall asleep on the ride home, and then they wake up and they'll be at their house.And he would say, "It was the magic bus.""The magic bus took us from here to there.I don't know what happened, but here I am."Yeah, yeah, yeah.And he's home safe.And, and I kinda sometimes think, like, we should look at your investment portfolio as the magic bus.Like, you know, if you're looking at this with one year, that's probably still too short.3 years, okay, we're getting somewhere.You know, 5 Yeah10, 20, like, that's where it really matters.The long term is what matters most.It's the journey along the way.He was sleeping when that guy ran that red light, or when this car cut them off.It was irrelevant.Or when it was all that perilous stuff that happened.He got to sleep right through it- Rightand wake up home in his bed.That's great.Well, it's kinda like the saying, like, uh, if a big tree falls in the woods, you know, or, like, if bear shits in the woods- Right.Yeah, yeah, yeahlike, all that kind of other, all those analogies.Like, if it, if you didn't see it, did it really happen?Right.But, you know, over a 30-year period, there's gonna be a lot of things that happen.Yeah.But just stay on the bus.Stay on the bus.All right, I got one more chart, one more chart Okay The S&P 500 forward PE ratio.This one i- is interesting just because people talk about, like, is the stock market expensive?Is it overdone?Is it blah, blah, blah.So what this is doing is looking at the S&P 500 total forward PE, right?What's the average PE across the entire-index.And right now you can see we're at 20.1. Yes Which is above the 10-year average of 19.1, so stock market looks expensive compared to that average.However, it's way off where we were last October, right?So we peaked last October, let's call it, like, 23.1, 23.2, something like that.And we spentThis is, is just looking at j- last year in general.You can see it was very high all the way to the left, started high, and then we had liberation day.And everything fell apart.Fell.And then Trump's like, "No, no, no, never mind, buy it," and then everybody bought it.And then the PE went up, and we peaked in October, and then it's been coming down since then, but the stock market is up since October.It is.So what's happening is these companies are growing into their valuation.we do when we buy a stock is we pay on a future value of the company.Sometimes that future value is, is more or less than what we should have paid for it.Right.But essentially what we're doing right now is the price that we're paying is much more reasonable for that future value right now than it was in October.Yeah, I mean, it'sI think, I think PE ratios are one of the more useful stats- Yeahthat I think we look at.Because it does put into a pretty good context just, like, whether or not you're over or underpaying.And, you know, looking at this chart, it, it doesn't, it doesn't alarm me by any means.No.You know?This is, I think, a very positive chart.I think it's, it's very positive.I think, in general, a lot of people, while they might feel a certain way about the country, like we were discussing, if you look at the economy as a whole, and we've talked about this at length before in pri- in prior podcasts, it is, based off of the numbers that we actively look at, pretty healthy as a whole for the most part.Yeah.You know?The economy looks pretty strong, and the stock market looks even stronger.It does.Yeah.Yeah.Rotation is good, though.We were talking about 60% of tech stocks being down.You know, that sucks if you're holding those tech stocks.Um, but the market is up because other stocks are doing well, and that's kind of the whole point of diversification.It is, 100%.Um, I wanna talk about something that is a little bit interesting, and I'm not sure if you saw this article, but, um, the Bilt RewardsDid you see this?YouThis is the credit card thing.Yes.Talk to me about the credit card thing.But I think it's an interesting trend that other credit card companies might hop into.Are you familiar with Bilt, the credit card company?I am not.B-I-L-T-E?B-I-L-T.Um, so basically- I was not even spelling it right.It's okay.Uh, so Bilt, there are major credit card providers, so you've got Visa, Mastercard, but the big ones are kind of like Chase, Capital One.You've got Amex, you've got Citigroup, and now you have Bilt.Okay.Which has been around for, like, maybe 4 or 5 years now is when they really started to take off.Um, the advantage of Bilt, the big thing that they pioneered, was being able to pay your rent on a credit card without a service fee.I heard about this, yes.Yes.Yes.So this was the first credit card where you could pay rent.Yeah.And if you- I received multiple emails about this when it happened.Most people did.Yeah.Yeah, yeah, yeah.So the advantage of this is that if you had an Amex card and you wanted to pay rent on it, they would charge a 3% transaction fee.Right.So if you had a $2,000 rent payment per month, it was really 2,060- Mm-hmmif you used a Amex card or any of those other kind of main cards that I, uh, talked about.But Bilt was the first person to not do that.first company.And that'sfirst company to not do that, and that's how they got a ton of new customers right away.Yeah.The other thing that they did was then they added transfer partners.So, and they have a lot of actually really good transfer partners, and if you're throwing all of your rent on a credit card, like let's just say you're paying $3,000 a month in rent, that's 36,000 points.Mm-hmm.You know, they've got really big transfer partners.They've got Marriott, they've got Hilton, they've got Hyatt, they've got IHG, and then that's just for hotels.They've also got Japan Airlines, they've got United, Air France, Virgin, Emirates, British Airways.All right, so a lot of partners.Lot of partners.Lot of really, really good ones, and then it keeps going.We'll gloss over Spirit.Um, but one of the things that they just announced is that you are now able to transfer your credit card points to Nelnet, Mohela, Sallie Mae, Advantage, and Navient to pay your student loans.Is it Mohela?Is that what it is?I always said Mohila.Mohila.Tori, what do you call it?Mohila.Mohila.Mohila.I don't have loans through them, so- I don't have student loans.Regardless, I think that this is great- Yeah, yeahbecause if you are basically paying your rent through a credit card- Okayso let's just say you have, we'll go back to the $3,000 a month.So if you have $36,000 a year in student loanor sorry, in rent payments- Mm-hmmyou can then take that, it's 1 cent per transfer basically is what it is.Okay.So that's an extra 360 bucks a year towards your student loan payments.Interesting.Which is pretty solid, and I wonder if a lot of other credit cards will follow this, but I think credit cards get a bad rep in a lot of ways just because I think a lot of people carry a balance, and then there's, you know, high interest rates and everything like that.Yeah.But if you're responsible with your credit card, like this is a perfect example here.Um, if your rent is $1,500 per month and you use the Bilt Rewards credit card each month for the payment with multipliers, that could actually add up to be $1,800 per year towards your student loans if you use it appropriately.I think use it appropriately is kind of like the key term there.The key thing.Because credit card points come from essentially people paying interest, other people paying interest- 100%, yeahso like whenever you and I get to maximize our credit card points, it's because somebody owed interest to the credit card company.They did.So somebody's owing interest Bilt then, right?Like somebody's paying interest.In theory, yeah.Someone's, someone's doing this too.But, um, long story short, I think this to me is an example of a system that's actually working and helping its customers in some ways because, yes, the cash back is great, but if you can get a higher multiplier to apply towards your student loans- Mm-hmmand if you're responsible with your credit, which, you know, hopefully most people watching this are good with their credit, then I think that this could be a huge value add for someone that is in a renting situation and does have student loans, which, let's face it, is a huge chunk of people right now.Sure.I think what's interesting to me, this is I feel like we're credit card maxing at this point.Yeah, for sure.Like we're like, "Yeah, let's get, let's maximize all the points that we can possibly get."And I think that's great when it works, to your point.If you do it and you do it well, then there's no harm in that.But I feel like the, uh, customer base that they are trying to appeal to here is the customer base that can't afford a house, so they're renting.Yeah.They have student loans.It's like it's the same customer base, right?Like the people that feel a little frozen out, and that's great when they can get that 8, $1,800 extra to go towards a student loan.Yeah.But there's inherently risk in that, and I don't know what the interest rates are on these credit cards, but I bet it's pretty- Oh, it's probably 24%.Right?Yeah.So that's, you know, 24% on your rent is pretty heavy.It's a lot, so you better pay your credit card off.Yeah.But I guess if you come out of school with a good chunk of student loan debt, I mean, if you're getting an extra 1,800 to $2,000 towards your student loans, I mean, that's gonna really help on that long-term interest.Yeah.Like, if you don't pay interest on this, and if you are going to pay your rent anyway, which hopefully you're paying your rent, do it on the card, get the points, apply it to your student loans.Well, I think paying your rent mightLet's say you're 25 years old- Yeahand, you know, you're a few years into your career, and your, the job market's a little fragile.Mm-hmm.You lose your job.Well, you got your credit card, you can still pay your rent.You're not gonna get evicted.Right.But then that credit card r- rent or that credit card bill- Chargecomes at the end of the month, and then you won't be able to pay it, and you'll still pay the next month's rent because you can't get evicted.And I could see it becoming a problem really easy with a very fragile part of the ecosystem, and that's the people who are young and just entering the workforce and don't- Yeahhave a lot of stability.Well, this was, uh, like, I don't know, did you ever have a Discover card?Yeah, totally.It was a- Yeahbad idea, but I got it- Yeahon my college campus.Yeah, exactly.College, yeah, that was, like, the big thing was, uh, I got a Discover card in college, and I still have it.I think it has my Netflix on there maybe.But regardless, um, if you learn how to use credit well, it can be a huge value add.If you are going to be irresponsible and not pay this, don't get it.Well, I, I think sometimes it's not necessarily about irresponsibility.It becomes more about just inability.Sure, but if you have the inability to pay a credit card, you shouldn't get a credit card.Well, yeah, but it's more like, I mean, if you don't have an emergency reserve and you lose your job and your rent is $3,000 a month- No, I knowor even if you do, and then you're unemployed for 6 months, and then like, "Well, I got the credit card, I can put it on."That's fair, but I mean, once again, we're choosing between 2 evils here.One's not necessarily better than the other of getting evicted or paying.I would rather pay the interest than get- Yeahevicted.I just won't be surprised when some of these credit card debtsrise.I, th- that will, I, I guarantee, I've seen that happen.Yeah.And it, it's very easy for it to happen, and I th- I, I think it works really well, like you said, when you're doing it right.Yeah.I, that's, that's just my point with this.I mean, Bilt's been around for a while now.Yeah.You know, this rent for credit cards is nothing new, but the fact that you can apply it to student loans is new- Yeahwhich I think is great if you're gonna get a multiplier on it versus just getting, you know, the basic.But I like this.I th- I'm excited by this because it's the first time that you're going to be able to apply points to something that's a debt- Yeahthat is not associated with this credit card.And I don't see how this is bad.I think if weD- do you ever, are you familiar with Siskel and Ebert, by any chance?No.No?Okay.So they were like- Is this is a cartoon or something?No.Okay.They were famous movie critics.Okay.And they had a weekly TV show on network television back in the day.Anyways, they would review 3 or 4 movies a week, and they would give it like thumbs up or thumbs down, and I feel like you're a thumbs up on this, and I might be a thumbs down on this.But how can you be a thumbs down on this?I just, I think it- It's just like GLP-1s It's an unnecessary evil GLP-1s could be great if youbut if you take a ton of them, then they're bad.sure.Everything in moderation is okay, but if you can't moderate, yeah, it becomes an issue.Then it's bad.It's just like anything else we talk about.I think that there are some things that are unnecessary risks, and I could see this as potentially an unnecessary risk.But you have a credit card.This is not a regular cr- I'm not paying my rent with my credit card, and I have the ability to have that reserve.I think there are people out there that will look at this as a lifeline or as a way to, like, just help them dig out from their student loan debt and then will use it the wrong way.So let me ask you this.Is it the fact that you can pay your rent on a Bilt Rewards credit card that's bad, or is it the student loan benefit that's bad?No, the student loan benefit is great, but I like it better when it's a company benefit where they match your contributions to your student loan.I think that's great.I think student loan benefits- Well, you could do both.No, but student loan benefits are good.That is not the issue to me.I think that it's an incentive for people to use this credit card to pay their rent.I don't think it's an altruistic incentive.The credit card's not like, "Hey, um, let's help out the student loan problem."They're basically like, "Hey, you probably also have a student loan problem, and I think, uh, you could use our credit card instead of Visa, and, uh, maybe we'll help you out.And then when you miss a payment, maybe we'll charge you 24%."But I think you're implying that that person's gonna miss a payment.I th- I think it should be expected because if we were to look at national data, you'd see that the credit card balances have increased.They have.Yes, that's true.So you should expect that some segment of the population who uses this credit card will miss payments, and that credit card debt will compound, and I don't think a credit cardIf, I don't know what their interest rate is.If it's- I'm sure it's the same as every other one.Right.Exactly.Yeah.It's whatever they can get away with.So I just don't think that this is a necessary risk.But I guess the risk hasn't changed with this.It has, because I don't know people paying their credit card with their Visa credit card.It's not- Paying their rent, you mean?Oh, sorry, their rent, yeah.Actually, I do know people who've I was gonna say, I definitely know a lot of people- On their credit card, yeahthat do that.I think tr- I, I think paying- But if you can do that without a fee, then that's a better situation.It's a better version of it.Sure.Yeah.But I think in general, just paying your rent with your credit card is not something I think is a good thing.I think it makes me uncomfortable to think that people are doing that.Tori?Yes.Are you gonna pay your rent with a Bilt Rewards credit card and apply that towards your student loans?As a renter and someone who has student loans, I would not do that.Tell me why.Because 1% back on my rent would be- 1.251.2 give me 2%, I'll round it upis gonna be not even half of my monthly payment in my one monthly payment at the end of the year.But if it's- For my student loanif it's, if it's free money to you, so I don't know what your rent is.But let's just say your rent is 1,500 bucks, so then you're getting $1,800 a year at the end of the year in student loan payments.I'd rather get cash back and pay it that way.I don't think it's, like, enough of an incentive for me to open up a credit card and- But I guess the point is, is you would take the cash back from the credit card anyway and apply it.Uh, I mean, like, yeah- MaybeI guess so.So it's the same thing.But I wouldn't look at it like that.Like, I wouldn't be like, "Oh, let me allocate my credit card points to my stu"I think it's a great offering.I just don't think, like, it is incentivizing enough.Yeah, I think in terms of it being a, quote-unquote, "great offering," if it was, then Tori would be like, "Yes, let's do it."I feel like I'm getting out of my depth.I don't know.I don't think that you should be sitting here necessarily.She said no.She said no.I'm not putting pressure on Tori.I'm all for it, but I think when it comes to arbitrage, if you're going to be spending money anyway on it, why wouldn't you get the free money?This is the way that you think about things, so this is the wayYou love the points, so this appeals to you.Well, I just like free money, you know?Like-the way that I look at it is I put roughly 40K a year on my credit card.Mm-hmm.And I got 28,000 of benefits back- Mm-hmmlast year from it.So to me, it's just stupid to not do it.Like, I just don't get it.Like, if someone's gonna literally hand you 1,500 bucks for freeIt's not free.It is free.There's no fee.Somebody else is paying for that.Are you serious?It's not coming from the company.But they're gonna be pay- It's coming from somebody who didn't get to pay their rent.So, so this is going back to the very, very beginning of our conversation when it comes to the savings thing, which you said at the beginning was basically you're taking from someone else, is basically what it is.ThatNo, but that's literally what this is.Not necessarily.Who do you think isWho do you think your credit card points are coming from, Colin?The fair, the fair point is is that with this, regardless of whether or not I participate- Yeahpeople are gonna get themselves into debt, whether it's-credit card, student loans, or personal loans- Yeahor with a bank.Yeah.Like, if you're gonna be irresponsible with it, then be irresponsible with it, but if you can be responsible with it, then you should do it.Just like with GLP-1s, just like with anything else.What are you talking about?These areDo you not- GLP-1s could be goodjust like cocaine, just like alcohol, just- No, cocaine is not good.What?Cocaine is bad all around.What are you talking about?GLP-1s, we just said, were good for the general population unless you abuse it.I actually saidYeah.ItOriginally we said they are potentially offering some benefits but- Potentially offering some benefits, but you could always abuse anything.You could abuse a credit card, not pay it.It's not the same thing.You don't abuse your GLP-1s- It is the same thingout of necessity, you know, or desperation.Credit cards are predatory.I understand that they have wonderful- Surepoints, benefits that you get to take advantage of, but you also have to recognize that that's happening because somebody else got blown up financially by it.Sure.The credit card companies make a lot of money because people pay interest on their credit cards, but thatDoes that make them bad?I didn't say it's bad.I said it's predatory.But predatory is a negative word.Predatory.The a- act is predatory.Are credit card companies bad?No.Is that act predatory?Yes.They shouldn't charge 24%.It's ridiculous.They charge what they- Faircan get away with.They, they do charge what they can get away with.I'm not saying that 24% interest rates are good.Okay.However-I am saying the fact that you can get more cash to pay for your student loans by doing nothing different is a good thing- Sureif you're responsible with it.But it does come on the backs of somebody else who had to suffer for it.That's true, but that was their own choice.Well, I guess their pain is your gain, Colin.I'm just saying, I didn't make them do that.I think we're going in circles.We are going in circles.Okay.Thank you for bringing that fun conversation.Thank you.Yes.And we are not talking about fraud today.Let's end it there.Uh, okay.Thanks, Colin.Thanks, brother.Um, hey, guess what?Guess what I did.You shared it.I shared the podcast.Nice.Yes.I have to share it as well.I'll share it.Share what happened.Maybe not this one.Share what today.Share last week's.Did you watch last week's?I'll share last week's.I did watch last week's.It was very good.Thanks, Colin.The information in this material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.Investment advice offered through Integrated Partners, doing business as Kofi Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor.Integrated Partners does not provide legal, tax, mortgage advice or services.Please consult your legal tax advisor regarding your specific situation.Past performance is no guarantee f- of future results.All investing involves risk, including loss of principle.No strategy assures success or protects against loss.The economic forecast set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that the strategies promoted will be successful.Compound Growth with Wheeler and Colin.Sponsored by Kofi Advisors.Reach out today.