Compound Growth

Moderna's Best Day Ever, Nvidia's Plan to Securitize Compute, and Dark Fiber All Over Again

Compound Growth Season 2 Episode 29

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0:00 | 40:39

Moderna jumped roughly 130–137% in a single day this week on a major mRNA cancer breakthrough: a personalized cancer shot, built using AI to sequence a patient's own tumor, completed Phase 3 trials with strong results. The hosts trace it back to Keytruda, the immunotherapy drug that's driven much of Merck's revenue for about 14 years, which works by helping the immune system detect cancer that would otherwise hide from it. Moderna's shot goes a step further, tailoring treatment to each patient's specific tumor, first tested in melanoma and now expanding into bladder cancer. Tempus AI, which does the AI sequencing behind the scenes, was only up about 12% the same day, a reminder the service provider rarely captures the same upside as the company that owns the drug. With short interest near 13% against the S&P average of 2.5%, the hosts debate whether this is a short squeeze as much as a scientific breakthrough, and revisit Morgan Housel's "buy low, sell high" critique: you don't plant a tree so you can cut it down.

That leads into a broader AI-investing thesis: favor the "downfield" companies with long track records already seeing real ROI from AI adoption, the shovel sellers over the gold miners. They flag hesitation around chipmakers like Micron, where near-term value may already be priced in, versus well-run, non-cyclical companies just beginning to benefit.

A stock screen with the firm's intern surfaces a diabetes-treatment company, sparking a debate about investing in treatments versus cures: a treatment is recurring revenue, while a cure, like Gilead's hepatitis C drug, is a one-time win with no repeat business. That leads into the widely covered Lindsay Clancy case, a mother's postpartum psychosis that escalated after weeks of rising antidepressant doses, which the hosts use to raise a broader point about underfunded research into women's health, particularly around childbirth and postpartum care, relative to men's health.

The back half digs into a CNBC-hosted Nvidia town hall with banks including KKR, floating a plan to package AI compute into a tradable asset class, "compute notes" that guarantee performance and pay interest, with Nvidia positioned as matchmaker rather than lender. The hosts compare it to pre-leasing a commercial building or securitizing aircraft, and revisit the dot-com-era "dark fiber" buildout, when telecom companies laid far more capacity than was needed, only for it to fill up decades later. Their disagreement: today's compute is being used right now, not decades from now, which changes the risk without resolving it. Both agree the underlying AI investment is producing real returns; they're skeptical anyone needs a new securitized product to capture it.

Closing out, the hosts pick apart a Betterment survey claiming 22% of Gen Z investors treat prediction markets as part of their financial plan, a number drawn from roughly 250 of 1,000 respondents with no visibility into how the question was actually worded. That leads into an AI-generated deepfake video of several former presidents singing that fooled an older relative on Facebook, and a wider conversation about financial literacy, the wealth gap, and Trump savings accounts for kids. They close on how constant comparison online creates a sense of missing out that didn't exist growing up with less money, tying it back to a documentary about a small Italian town overwhelmed by tourists chasing an Instagram-perfect version of the place.

Sources:
Moderna, Phase 3 trial and stock update (referenced on the recording; not independently verified this session)
Merck, Keytruda background (referenced on the recording)
Tempus AI (referenced on the recording)
Betterment, Gen Z investor survey (referenced on the recording; not independently verified this session)

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Credits:
Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell